“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it…” ~ Upton Sinclair by Barry Ritholtz June 2023 Since the financial crisis, we have seen repeated attempts at attacking indexing all of which have failed — both legislatively and in terms of investors voting with…
Macro Strategy—Equity Market Climbs A “Wall Of Worry” Yet Again: Moderating domestic demand growth, big energy price declines, loosening labor market conditions, and softening wage growth have boosted confidence in a “soft landing” scenario for the U.S. economy, in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) manages to bring both growth and inflation back to moderate, sustainable…...
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty. ~Ed Seykota If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. I will be in travels from Friday through…...
With the halfway point of 2023 two weeks away, the S&P 500 has broken out to a 12-month high. The index has accomplished that feat 32 times during the month of June—or exactly one-third of all cases measured back to 1928. Since stock prices are not only anticipatory, but also causal in nature, does the achievement of…...
As investors debate the merits of generative artificial intelligence, a key question is what it could mean for the stock market. Take Nvidia for example: last month the semiconductor firm said it expects $11 billion of sales in the current quarter — fully 53% above the $7 billion consensus estimate amid AI-inspired demand for its…...
Welcome back investors! In this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, we intend to catch-up on the markets’ year-to-date performance and advance the probabilities for markets going forward. The S&P 500 finished Thursday (6/15) with its highest close in almost 14 months, leading to its fifth consecutive weekly gain, despite Friday’s loss. The index is currently up…...
In one of Jim Paulsen’s last reports before retiring, penned November 2022, Paulsen urged clients to increase equity market exposure/s. He understood the nuances surrounding the concept of “market liquidity”, which is often muddled and conflated with competing narratives. Let’s look back at Paulsen’s commentary and reporting from November 2022 in the below: “So when…
The Major Trend Index moved up one notch to a net reading of zero (Neutral) in the week ended June 9th. The Sentiment category dipped into negative territory for the first time since January 21, 2022—less than three weeks after the S&P 500’s bull market high. However, that weakness was more than offset by a…...
Check out some top-of-mind topics and subject matter surrounding the market ahead of this week’s key economic data and an FOMC on Wednesday. If you would like to watch the full video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week team! Reminder: While there have been plenty of ill-timed magazine covers over the…...
Key takeaways Bank of America internal data suggests consumer spending was broadly stable in May, with Bank of America total card spending per household up 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), seasonally adjusted. The year-over-year (YoY) growth rate remains negative at -0.2% YoY. Bank of America data shows older generations’ spending growth is outstripping that of younger generations.…...
