Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: We Didn’t Start the “Fire”
7 December 2021
A new COVID variant started the ruckus for markets, but we view that as secondary to the real culprit—the Fed’s more aggressive response to the “on Fire” data. [...]
Mid-Cycle Transition Complete: Weekly Nifty 9
6 December 2021
Research Report Excerpt #1 Nonetheless, some variables provide greater force and as such are characterized as force factors. I’m of the opinion, the force factor of the day is monetary [...]
End of Year Valuation Re-Rating With Volatility Abound
5 December 2021
Who needs a reset? Is it the S&P 500 (SPX), the forward price/earnings (P/E) multiple, the Nasdaq (COMPQ), the Russell 2000 (RUT), maybe all of the above. Since [...]
Weekly State of the Market: Seasonal Misstep, But Data Guides The Way
2 December 2021
Spend 2 seconds on FinTwit and you’ll see why equities fell 5% in Sept, rose 10% in Oct and then fell 4% again. Overreacting in both directions is what equities do. Set your [...]
Merrill Lynch: Excessive Consumer Demand
30 November 2021
Macro Strategy—Businesses have responded to unprecedented U.S. consumer-demand strength and rising capacity utilization rates by bringing real equipment investment slightly above pre-pandemic levels as 2021 progressed, with strong investment [...]
Weekly Warm-up: Outlook Feedback and Consumer Update
23 November 2021
This week, we provide feedback to our 2022 Outlook—spoiler alert—there wasn’t as much as usual. Meanwhile, consumers are opening up wallets for the holidays as our survey suggested [...]
Economy Reignited, Small Caps Oversold: Weekly Nifty 9
22 November 2021
Research Report Excerpt #1 Given that in the lead up to “Volmageddon” in 2018 we got up to 9 days of VIX/SPX rising together, most investors who remember this automatically assign a [...]
All Good At The Surface, But A Deeper Dive Identifies…
21 November 2021
Since the S&P 500’s 8-day win streak ended on November 8th, I think we can say that the market has done two things: 1) Committed to the seasonal pattern 2) [...]
Weekly State of the Market: Follow The Data Into Year-End
18 November 2021
“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do [...]
