We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when compared to the 2022 market peak. 2023 is rapidly coming to a close with a mere 5 trading days left. Two important economic releases come Friday, the Nov Core PCE deflator (Street +0.20% MoM) and U…...
IT’S OFFICIAL! The S&P 500 has achieved our year-end price target of 4,750, formerly disseminated within our weekly Research Report titled “The Worst Month For Capital Returns In Focus : September 2023.” Below is the excerpt from within this report and link: “As we weigh the evidence, add up the tailwinds and headwinds, and recognize that…...
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By Robert Sluymer CMT Equity markets are resolving 2-year trading ranges to the upside – Further upside likely in 2024. How should investors think about an equity market that rallied 110% off its lows in 2021, then over a two-year period pulled back 25%+ retracing 50% of the initial rally only to bottom at its…...
S&P 500’s annual return after a NEGATIVE RETURN year. Average return the next year = 18%. Remember, however, the AVERAGE was never the outcome. Up 7/9 times the next year = 80%+ positivity rate. So far, the S&P 500 is up 20% in 2023. History often repeats, even if it only rhymes. On behalf of…...
By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to cautiously shift communication from how high to how long. We continue to see it remaining on extended hold until its first cut in June 2024. Our strategists stay long UST 10y. We expect the Fed to…...
In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S. economy to slip into a recession. And many remained skeptical throughout 2023 because they saw a Fed that was perceived to be hostile to markets. As we move into 2024, investor skepticism has diminished but investors…...
Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in a contrary fashion. It’s far easier to find indicators that track the “emotional” or “dumb” money in the stock market than it is to isolate the action of true market sophisticates. We track a few futures…...
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Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated (S&P 500 2021-2024E EPS: $208-$225, ~2.5% CAGR), and the market has moved sideways averaging near our price target of 4,200 (2022 avg: ~4,100; 2023 avg: ~4,250). Equity concentration reached levels not seen since 1970s with a…...
