The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a six-week stint in bearish territory. The net score rose two notches to zero, from -2 the previous week. Progress in the Technical work was the main driver, but the Cyclical category also improved a level. In…...
2023 and how it started: After a bear market in the prior year and January Indicator Trifecta is 3-for-3 positive, it’s UBER bullish for the year. Next 11 months and full year have ALWAYS been higher for the S&P 500. The average return is 22% for the full year. (Almanac Trader) To watch the weekly…
At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, has an argument for accelerating the work: AI advances are going to provide tools to better understand the technology and to make it safer, Huang said in a discussion with Goldman…...
How about them Small-caps? How about that follow-through? How about the 3-week rally which has seen the S&P 500 rally some 10 percent? That’s right; the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 10% over just the last three weeks, the best such stretch since June 2020 and during the crazy recovery from the March 2020 lows.…...
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The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish weight of the evidence. Net equity exposure in the Core Fund, Core private accounts, Core ETF, and Global Fund all stand at 45%. The guideline range for these portfolios’ stock weighting is 30% to 70%. Today’s…...
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The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those who were/are positioned bearishly and with the hopes of bad outcomes for equities. The most basic aspect to investing is as long as you position for the long-term, while maintaining a consistent cash position to take…...
In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But as the inversion deepened, Harvey abandoned that view, moving squarely into the recession camp. We respect his flexibility. Today, we have another economist…...
A tortured heart does not sleep altogether well, and so I spent most of my waking hours publishing the following macro-market thoughts. Why a tortured heart, which will not be detailed here to any great extent, but to suggest that one need but not to look much further than their monitors and/or screens to see…
