To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too many things change too quickly in the investment world for that to succeed. It is necessary instead to understand the rationale behind the rules in order to appreciate why they work when they do and don’t…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of the all-new ADP methodology in predicting the first estimate of the monthly official private payroll numbers is unimpressive, as our first chart shows. ADP’s 106K increase in January completely failed to spot the 443K surge in…...
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in the meantime. There are two series from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey covering the job market—“Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get.” We don’t know why two measures are needed, since they are two sides…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The absolute best investors I’ve encountered or engaged over the last 23 years of my investing career have ALL: Weathered market storms with a willingness to accept double-digit drawdowns. Resolved pessimistic and fearful narratives/headlines to deliver long-term opportunity/value. Remained optimistic. Understood time IN THE MARKET was more valuable than TIMING the…
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling start, and yet investor sentiment remaining rather suspect, some “payback” was likely in store in February. After all, markets don’t tend to go up in a straight line. Overbought conditions will develop during a strong uptrend,…...
All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock ~ Charlie Munger If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market, please click the provided link. Be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report. Have a…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was the spike in auto sales, reported on February 1. New unit car and light truck sales jumped nearly 18% month-to-month, taking sales to their highest level since May 2021. The retail sales data subsequently reported a…...
Investors and traders are likely pulling their hair out at the roots, bumbling and tumbling through one of the longest and deepest bear markets in history, and without a recession to boot… yet! One of the BIGGEST issues for many investors contending with this ongoing bear market is how out of cycle it seems. Think…
Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are, so their neuroticism and paranoia will be vindicated. But this perspective is not conducive to successful investing! If you would like to watch our Weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Reminder,…...
Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think that the full hit from the Fed’s actions have already worked through the economy. Existing home sales have hit bottom and likely will rise a bit in Q1, but prices have a long way to fall.…...
