We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or a combination of the two. As it pertains to investing: It’s hard to invest “well” without both, but it is easy to entertain the idea that we can invest well by either experiencing investing without a…...
by Mike Wilson Jon Krakauer’s Into Thin Air chronicles one of the deadliest years on Mount Everest, when 12 mountaineers died trying to scale the highest peak on earth. The story reveals both the best and the worst traits of people as many of the climbers try to reach the summit without proper regard for…
Good day Finom Group members. As I continue to recover from my illness early this year (cough/cold), we will be foregoing this week’s State of the Market video. But please continue to read and digest our ongoing dissemination of 3rd party Research. This latest report from J.P. Morgan focuses on subject matter we’ve discussed in…...
Core Services Inflation is Sticky, but the Fed is Exerting a Lot of Pressure Core CPI services inflation is still sticky; the Fed’s favored measure of services ex-energy and rents rose 0.36% in January, slowing only trivially—well within the mar gin of measurement error—from the 0.39%—increase in December. The usual culprits misbehaved again, with vehicle…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent good news on inflation and are complacent of risks. Equity markets appeared to read this month’s central bank meetings as dovish, while dismissing…...
Larger narrative is Fed “disinflation” is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense. (by Fundstrat) The January jobs report was strong = Fed wary, but also means US not in recession = good The strong January jobs report (+517k vs 188k expected), along with strong…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The growth projections by sector are completely flipped for 2023. Analysts anticipate the low comparisons for Consumer Discretionary/Communication Services to be a tailwind for EPS growth in 2023. Unfortunately, the high comparable EPS is anticipated to be a headwind for the Energy sector in 2023. Hence, the price performance has also…
To take a page out of last weekend’s Research Report, let’s highlight the theme centered on the probability of an interim consolidation/pullback, as follows: “It’s rare to know precisely when a pullback is going to take place, other than hoping individual breadth and/or momentum stochastics are suggesting overbought conditions. But even these overbought conditions can…...
“During his tenure Lynch trounced the market overall and beat it in most years, racking up a 29 percent annualized return. But Lynch himself pointed out a fly in the ointment. He calculated that the average investor in his fund made only around 7 percent during the same period. When he would have a setback,…...
Macro Strategy—Fixed Income Positioning: Be Circumspect and Mind the Disconnect: For the past several months, risk assets including credit have had a remarkable rally against a significantly weakening economic environment. More recently, another “gap” has developed and widened: the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) expected future rate path versus market expectations. With these numerous disconnects and yields…...
