The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline figure came in at 0.4%, down a tick from January’s reading. Both headline figures matched their consensus estimates. The Core CPI came in at 5.5%, tallying its fifth consecutive monthly decline since peaking…...
By Ian Shephardson of Pantheon Macro Economic Slowing Wage Gains will Give the Fed Room to Pause, but not Yet The 265K increase in February private payrolls supports our view that January’s 386K spike—revised down from the initial 443K estimate—was an aberration, driven by much less cold January weather than usual. The lack of disruptive…...
I don’t know that there were many investors/traders who anticipated the route in markets this past week, but there are some seasonal factors at play suggesting that March’s price action is on-trend, historically. Looking at only the past 20 years showed that stocks tended to bottom in March. This is likely due to major bear…...
Critical Technical Support Holds This week’s note will be shorter than normal given the Tech playbook note we also published today ahead of our conference this week in San Francisco. Given our comments last week around the technicals, we thought it was important to provide a brief update after Friday’s price action. In short, equity…...
Slower spending growth in February The growth in Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household decelerated in February to 2.7% YoY, from 5.1% YoY in January. On the month seasonally-adjusted (SA) total card spending rose 0.7% MoM, compared to the strong 1.3% MoM in January. As discussed in last month’s Consumer Checkpoint,…...
To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too many things change too quickly in the investment world for that to succeed. It is necessary instead to understand the rationale behind the rules in order to appreciate why they work when they do and don’t…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of the all-new ADP methodology in predicting the first estimate of the monthly official private payroll numbers is unimpressive, as our first chart shows. ADP’s 106K increase in January completely failed to spot the 443K surge in…...
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in the meantime. There are two series from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey covering the job market—“Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get.” We don’t know why two measures are needed, since they are two sides…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The absolute best investors I’ve encountered or engaged over the last 23 years of my investing career have ALL: Weathered market storms with a willingness to accept double-digit drawdowns. Resolved pessimistic and fearful narratives/headlines to deliver long-term opportunity/value. Remained optimistic. Understood time IN THE MARKET was more valuable than TIMING the…
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling start, and yet investor sentiment remaining rather suspect, some “payback” was likely in store in February. After all, markets don’t tend to go up in a straight line. Overbought conditions will develop during a strong uptrend,…...
