The ECI is the best measure of wage growth, but you still need to look under the hood, not at the headline… …Private sector wages, ex-incentive pay, is the key metric, and it likely slowed further in Q4. If wage growth really is slowing to a sustainable pace, the Fed will find it hard to…...
Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager: Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. The Major Trend Index improved to High Neutral (reading of +1) in the week ended January 27th, following two weeks in its Neutral…...
Chief Investment Office Macro Strategy Team at Merrill Lynch: Macro Strategy—Treasury Offsetting QT Until Mid-Year: The looming debt ceiling crisis is pressuring the U.S. Treasury to drain hundreds of billions of dollars from its account at the Federal Reserve (Fed), adding reserves to the banking system and easing financial conditions. Coupled with an improved outlook…...
Yield curve is the most inverted in decades, yet many parts of the market are making new 52-week highs. ISM below 50 yet industrials, materials are some of the strongest sectors. Mortgage rates spiked, yet homebuilders doing well. Lesson? Always. Follow. Price. ~Alpha Charts If you would like to watch our recorded State of the…...
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Research Report Excerpt #1 According to Goldman, U.S. retail investors/traders sold all of the stocks they accumulated during 2019~2021, and went further beyond to capitulate. That’s a meaningful determination by Goldman Sachs; capitulate! After all, they say that retail traders tend to buy the tops and sell the bottoms. Research Report Excerpt #2 In his…
The bull vs. bear battle wagered on this past trading week, as the bears attempted to wrestle back into focus the downside risks to equities that defined the 2022 bear market. They managed to reconcile the bi-weekly gains, year-to-date, for both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) with slight declines for…...
Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental process. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a recession, or not. We double down on that view today with more evidence to support it. The Hall of Mirrors…many investors share a…...
January 13, 2023 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group This year is off to a much stronger start than suggested by the 3-4% gains in the blue-chip averages: Through January 12th, the Value Line Arithmetic Composite—an equally-weighted index of about 1,700 stocks, was up 7.0%. Yesterday, that action produced a “super-overbought” reading on our Moving…...
While we can’t be sure that the bear market ended on October 13, 2022, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,491, the New Year has started far better than 2022. Eyebrows are starting to raise and investors are beginning to question the bearish outlook for markets that coalesce around a belief that new lows or…...
