January 13, 2023 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group This year is off to a much stronger start than suggested by the 3-4% gains in the blue-chip averages: Through January 12th, the Value Line Arithmetic Composite—an equally-weighted index of about 1,700 stocks, was up 7.0%. Yesterday, that action produced a “super-overbought” reading on our Moving…...
While we can’t be sure that the bear market ended on October 13, 2022, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,491, the New Year has started far better than 2022. Eyebrows are starting to raise and investors are beginning to question the bearish outlook for markets that coalesce around a belief that new lows or…...
“Keep It Simple Stunad for 2023: Market will be well beyond your comfort-BUY level by the time your defined signals are confirmed. It is why you are constantly re-defining your confirming signals. Don’t do this Just buy when value presents itself.” ~Seth Golden If you would like to listen and view the weekly State of…...
Market veterans know there’s just one thing more probable than a recession after the yield curve inverts: Yield curve denial among a large group of sell-side economists and market strategists! Indeed, the earliest of those dismissals occurred last March—a month before the first of more than a dozen iterations of a yield-curve inversion. More recently,…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Most traders/investors from all walks of capital market experience had a poor year in 2022. When markets are heavily trending downward and taking most stocks down the same path, it’s incredibly difficult to outperform, market perform, and/or extrapolate the true value from such a trend. The educational value of a bear…
Last year proved a painful time to be an investor, and for the most part, it didn’t matter what asset class you favored. 2022 will go down as the 7th worst year since the 1920s for the stock market, and the 3rd worst year for a 60/40 portfolio ever (only eclipsed by the Great Depression).…...
Introduction The U.S. economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat. But the Moody’s Analytics baseline forecast—the most-likely outlook—holds that the economy will avoid a downturn. Call it a slowcession. Slowcession By Mark Zandi The U.S. economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment.…...
When you believe in a future that is so alive in your mind that you keep living it over and over, your mind “front runs” your current environment and pulls you in that new direction. Greatness always starts this way; by thinking greater than your present reality. ~Mark Minervini Thank you for reading our inaugural…...
Despite all the uncertainty across today’s global capital markets, we are poised to enter 2023 with a more constructive tilt, especially on many parts of Credit. Our basic premise is that it will be easier to navigate inflation’s negative impact on corporate earnings and consumer balance sheets in 2023 than it was to invest with…...
by Barry Napp Our 2022 outlook note was titled Inflation Politics & Policy and began with a section titled “liquidity trickle”. In retrospect we got the effect of the reversal of excessive liquidity in ‘21 on markets correct, and while we expected higher fiscally driven inflation and a higher terminal policy rate than consensus, we underestimated…...
