It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given how the week ended for the markets. However, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) both finished above their respective 50-DMAs for the first time in 3 months, to complete the week. This is a positive…...
“Bear market rallies are labeled because things get so badly discounted they foster the idea that it has to get better from here. The bear market rally is validated with lower lows when metrics don’t deliver on the optimism of “from here”. Bottom line: “from here” demands work!” ~Seth Golden If you wish to watch…...
While Defensives are the clear leader, most investors aren’t there, leaving more upside potential as earnings cuts begin. Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession – the odds of which are increasing. Defensive leadership reigns supreme but few want to…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Early July started well once again, but now the market has hit the typical consolidation portion of July, where price action proves less favorable or mixed. In the final 2 weeks of July trading we’ll find out just how much repeating or rhyming the market expresses. Research Report Excerpt #2 It’s…
A big WELCOME BACK to all of our Finom Group members, as we kick-off another monthly cycle of Research Reports and macro-market analysis. This past week found the major averages consolidating gains from the previous week, again. From large-caps to small-caps, and everything in between, stocks hit the skids once again, failing to find follow…...
A very strong US dollar provides yet another headwind for earnings. Meanwhile, from a historical perspective, this bear market may only be about half way done in terms of time and perhaps price, too. Our defensive recommendation has paid off this year and now represents a momentum trade; stick with it. Stronger dollar poses another…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: While growth risks are elevated, our base case looks for an acceleration in global growth in the second half of the year, led by China, and a moderation in inflationary forces that should allow central banks to pivot. Last week’s strong US jobs print should allay concerns that the economy has already slipped…...
Macro Strategy—Volatile Times Ahead: Untethered money-supply fluctuations have created a new, more volatile environment for asset allocation. Until the Federal Reserve (Fed) reins in the sharp swings in liquidity, uncertainty and inflation will likely prove more volatile than during the pre-pandemic, low-inflation era. More uncertainty and higher inflation volatility increase the need for a well-diversified,…...
Key talking points Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card spending was up 11% year-over-year (YoY) in June. Meanwhile aggregated card spending per household was up 3.3% YoY in the 28-days ending June 30th, down from 4.0% YoY at the end of May. Higher inflation, especially rising gas prices, continues to squeeze consumers. Consumer…...
Fear dominates in times that are especially uncomfortable. Bear market, recession, yield curve inversion, whatever….Negative focus/thinking is a self-perpetuating prison of the mind. The trader has control over their situation. The successful ones actually use it. ~Jonathan Harrier If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided…...
