Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY knows precisely WHERE markets will land. NOBODY knows WHY it will precisely land where it will, when it does. NOBODY knows and BEHAVES according to what they know inside their portfolio either. Doubt is universal, skill…...
Paul F. Desmond Lowry’s Reports Inc. 26 February 2002 Ask one hundred investors whether this is a bull market or a bear market, and you are likely to find their opinions split evenly down the middle. No one is really certain that the September 2001 low marked the end of the bear market and…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Keeping in mind that Sell-in-May-and-Go-Away doesn’t pertain solely to the month of May, but rather to the 6 month period starting in May and ending in October. This period holds the lowest probability for positive and average returns for the S&P 500 dating back to 1950. In speaking to the potential…
Within last weekend’s Research Report, the following was offered: “We are in unprecedented market waters and as such our flexibility as investors should remain elevated. Cash and Time; these are going to come in handy for the balance of the year.” The same holds true for the coming days, weeks, and likely months. Recall the…...
I bought Alibaba when everyone was selling it. I knew about the headlines, the China-tech crackdowns, and the inherent risks of owning a Chinese ADR. I read all the warning signs, bought and held Alibaba. Knowing all of the risks, I did it anyway. I took a loss, albeit on a small position. Why did…...
Cross-asset Strategy: Investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness, with the AAII bull-bear survey metric recording its lowest reading since early March 2009, just before the GFC trough. This, in combination with light investor positioning and better than feared Q1 earnings, should allow the market to rebound. We reiterate Energy as our highest conviction sector OW…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Q2-Q3 are the weakest 2 quarters of the 4-year cycle (shown above), averaging losses of -1.2% for DJIA and -1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1949, and -5.0% for the NASDAQ since 1971. Again, these are the stats for the Q2-Q3 period of the 4-year presidential cycle, not the whole year.…
After a first quarter decline for the major averages, and during a midterm election year, it became clear that 2022 was going to be a struggle for investors. There was no guarantee the year would bear a negative return then, but it is becoming increasingly probable after a significant market decline in April came to…...
Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them the “wall” and the “wallop.” The wall refers to the proverbial wall of worry bull markets climb. As Sir John Templeton described famously: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and…...
With defensive stocks now expensive and offering little absolute upside, the S&P500 appears ready to join the ongoing bear market. Defensives can still outperform but it’s just a relative trade at this point. Inflation is peaking but that’s not bullish, because it means margins & EPS have peaked too. Harder to hide… Over the past…...
