Single-family house prices have been rising at record rates, raising the question of whether they have become disconnected with fundamentals. In October 2021, U.S. home price appreciation reached an annualized pace of 20% almost double the rate in 2012 when housing was rebounding off its lows of the global financial crisis (GFC). Yet, in our…
Cross-asset Strategy: While the geopolitical crisis and policy tightening are overhangs, risk assets have a number of supports that include strong activity momentum pre-shock, supportive labor markets, an ending COVID headwind in DM, and easing China policy stance. The early stages of Fed tightening should not be seen as a negative for stocks, as equities…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 “How does Jim Cramer of CNBC do so well then?” The short answer to the question above is: He doesn’t! As the tracked data analyzes, for every $1 invested in the Jim Cramer Action Alerts Plus recommended investment, an investor would have earned half of what they would have earned if…
The equity markets are on a 3-week winning streak, which is hard to accept given the quarter still ended in the red. As we enter the last month of the “Best Six Months” to own stocks, the market logged its first down quarter in 2 years, since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to…...
WAR is stressing global supply chains, inflation rises yet the S&P 500 went RISK-ON over the last two weeks! Some are saying this is madness, a fake pump; stocks are divorced from reality. Here is the problem with that: Stocks are only divorced from YOUR reality! The S&P 500 doesn’t adjust to you. YOU adjust…...
With the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the first part half of our long standing narrative of Fire and Ice has played out. However, the headwinds to growth from this policy shift, still historically high inflation, payback in demand, and the war in Ukraine are not priced. Downgrading Financials to Neutral. Don’t Fight the Fed. The Fed…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 A perfect depiction of setup years is recognizable in the table below, which we’ve offered in past reporting: At its “closing” lows on March 14th, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 12.4% before the renewed strength. It’s been the 4th worst start to a year since 1928. As the table above clearly outlines, the…
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More on this later in our weekly Research Report, but it’s a critical concept we hope you employ in practice and find supporting your emotional quotient. The difference between the average year and a midterm election year…...
“The market indexes may have bottomed, but keep in mind, making a low, forming a bottom and reaching the point when stocks are moving up in earnest are three different things. I’m especially interested in the later.” ~Mark Minervini If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the…...
Macro Strategy—No Respite For The Weary: After two years of a pandemic, the world now has to deal with an escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Even assuming cooler heads prevail, and a diplomatic solution unfolds, the conflict has the potential to sow the seeds of a global recession. The Russian economy is small, yet…...
