STRATEGY: July/August “chop” morphing into full Missouri (aka “show me state”) –> tilting us further into “risk-on” view –> multiple risk-on signs Wednesday sell-off was capitulation… The sell-off seen in markets Wednesday, in our view, had a capitulatory feel to it. The ostensible trigger was a combination of the soft ADP jobs report and seeming…...
“Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch To review the State of the Market weekly video, please click the following link. In this week’s macro-market analysis we take yet a further look at what investors can anticipate, with no guarantees, from the month of August.…...
The mid-cycle transition de-rating is advanced but unfinished. Falling earnings revision breadth this fall will likely complete that process. We like a barbell of defensives (h/c and staples) and rate plays (financials) as Fed moves toward tapering. Weak breadth reflects De-rating under the surface. Our mid cycle transition continues with weak breadth, quality stocks doing…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Amazon shares took the biggest hit post-earnings release date. The company missed analysts estimates on the top line, while beating handily on the EPS/bottom line estimate. As I discussed investor’s reaction to the revenue miss with Seth, he offered the following, which was also shared with Finom Group members in the…
Forty one! As of this past trading week, the S&P 500 has “clocked” 41 all-time highs (4,429) in 2021. The record for all time highs in a calendar year is 77, “clocked” in 1995. While the record-setting market behavior is notable, it is not where our attention is found. What comes next, and how our…...
As a youth minister, I often find that much of what I’ve learned and preached can help us as investors/traders. What is the purpose of investing/trading, and do our plans meet the purpose. If not, there in lay the work that may need to be done! Does the amount of research I perform fit with…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Year-end gets nearer with each passing week. Month-end is always a good time to review one’s goals for the year and possibly look at where you proved successful in the first half of the year and where opportunities have popped up for potential course-correction. When you’ve mastered the exercise of monthly,…
Another week has passed and another week has proven the longstanding trend of dip buying activity. This has been the message from the market, during both broad advances in the S&P 500 (SPX) and narrow advances. I emphasize the different advances because the financial and social media tends to do a good job of littering…...
The average length of the bear markets since WW II has been 16 months; the average length of the bull markets has been 5 years. This is the most compelling reason to always be invested in the market; it goes up more than 3 times as often as it goes down. If you would like…...
We remain constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown. Even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as if the global economy is entering late cycle, our research suggests the recovery is still in early-cycle and gradually transitioning towards mid-cycle. While the second derivatives of macro-cyclical…...
