In this week’s State of the Market we take a look at what the market may produce for the back half of 2021. The quantitative data expresses a good deal of positive equity market momentum, with July also holding better than average monthly gains historically. A body in motion tends to stay in motion. Click…...
STRATEGY: Stick with Epicenter in 2H2021. Strong markets stay strong. US COVID-19 deaths are “unvaccinated” Americans COVID-19 cases could be rising, in part due to the spread of the more transmissible variants (Delta, etc.), but the approved vaccines seem to be containing the spread, and more importantly, limiting the severity of the disease (for a…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 This Bloomberg chart was making the rounds this past week. Less than 45% of S&P 500 stocks trading above 50-DMA. The situation comes with the S&P 500 at all time highs, and of course the last time this happened was 1999/2000. It seems as though anytime you correlate a chart of any kind…
This past trading week went exactly as investors/traders expected, after a ~2% pullback for the S&P 500 (SPX) the previous week. Sarcasm? Precisely! While many investors/traders and strategists anticipated a greater pullback before a resumption of the uptrend, including myself to a lesser degree, the market defied such expectations and rallied to new all-time highs.…...
Investing takes time! When Jeff Bezos asked the 2nd richest man in the world… “Your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?” Warren Buffett: “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.” To review the State of the Market video analysis,…...
The Fed’s “surprise” move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago. When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer. Tapering is Tightening but Tightening began months ago. The…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 With this front of mind, I would suggest that investors not dwell on this past week’s retreat in the markets, even if Friday’s market action culminated with the lows of the week. One week, one day… that does not make a month or a year. While Friday’s retreat in the major…
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. Although last weekend was our monthly off-reporting week, the market did not disappoint our expectations for potential drawdowns in the major indices. Quad or Triple Witching weeks are always tricky, but June’s monthly option expiration week is usually one of the worst of the year. When this calendar…...
“Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.” -Fred Schwed, Jr. To review this week’s State of the Market video, please click the following link. This week we discuss the…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields. In other words: “do bonds know something about macro fundamentals that equities and commodities don’t?” Our answer is ‘no’, and we explain the technical drivers likely responsible for the recent bond rally. We advise clients to…...
