The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past week. In previous reports, we had outlined the quantitative data surrounding the forward returns for the benchmark index during Memorial Day’s trading week, which since 2010 proved to be negative and with a less than 50%…...
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the markets in 2021. To review the latest State of the Market video, click the following link! The worst 6 months of the year for market returns are May through October, so we are still in the thick of a potentially challenging period based on seasonality.…...
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has become an obsession. On both fronts, we could be at a moment of (too) Great Expectations. It’s better to travel than arrive. Markets…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 A huge challenge to achieving long-term gains in the market, if not the #1 reason, is the ability to overcome “fears”. The fear emotion is the greatest variable an investor/trader will likely ever contend with in the market. It’s a seemingly endless battle. Over the last 15 years as an active…
Welcome back! Every week, Seth and I discuss all the facets of the market and what are the factors impacting the market for our members’ benefit… long-term. From one week in the market to the next, anything is possible. It’s for this reason we’ve long since adopted the philosophy and strategy that Seth coined, “act…...
Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger than $6.5trn fiscal stimulus, $120bn monthly Fed purchases and a YoY baseline economic comparison of near 0.” To review the weekly SOTM video, please click the following link. Now let’s dive into some of the technicals,…...
While there is some sympathy for our mid-cycle transition, most think it’s too early, or not worth acting on. There is also push back on our call for lower valuations and some of our specific relative value trades. Finally, investors are more bullish on the earnings outlook for next year. Some,gradual, buy in to the…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 All of this standing in place has brought about a significant divergence in the 2010 analogue above. Despite a second down wave during the first 3 days of the past trading week, with the bounce-back on Thursday (5/20), the S&P 500 was never more than -4% from the last high reached…
The past trading week almost mirrored what we saw 2 weeks ago when the S&P 500 (SPX) fell in the first 3 trading days of the week, but then rallied on Thursday and Friday to close out the week. That rally into the weekend, 2 weeks ago, wasn’t enough to turn the index positive for…...
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy has peaked, and valuation is falling. Taxes, tapering & transitions temper index returns. Look for alpha in relative value, themes, and reasonably priced growth and cyclicals as mid-cycle transition runs its course. Mid-cycle is here, and…...
