Alpha over Beta. The wild price swings of the past month are a function of two things in our view: 1)excess leverage in the financial system and 2) the market contemplating the transition of the economy from early to mid cycle as the reopening draws near. The good news is that VAR shocks that happen…...
by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga Since the mid-1990s, the Federal Reserve System has either implicitly or explicitly had an annual inflation target (IT) of around 2 percent. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) preferred inflation measure to meet this target is core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which explicitly excludes the prices on food and fuel to…
Once every quarter, Finom Group releases its weekly Research Report to the public. To receive our Research Reports and State of the Market weekly video going forward, subscribe today. Now, let’s go deep on this Super Bowl Sunday and see what the market has in store for investors/traders! It is not always an easy task…
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we deconstruct the January Barometer, look into just how expensive the market has become (maybe) and continue to validate where investors can find the greatest returns for their investing capital! “An investor without…...
Correction has arrived, positioning and leverage should do the rest. A combination of peaking rate of change in M1/M2and aggressive short squeezes has led to a significant degrossing by hedge funds. Markets corrected 3-5% with many of our favored trades taking a much needed and expected hit. This is normal in an exuberant bull market…...
On Monday, SocGen’s equity derivatives team cautioned that in addition to possible “further de-grossing in hedge fund balance sheets,” last week’s events could also “manifest in another pullback from vol sellers.” The bank’s Jitesh Kumar and Vincent Cassot noted that there are “already signs of excessive stress in the VIX complex as it is trading…
The ~3% drawdown in the S&P 500 this week took many by surprise. A key feature of this likely short-lived technical tumble was the accompanying small cap short squeeze, most likely initiated by retail investors whose increased activity has become more interesting lately (see more details below). Although the recent technical selloff and short squeeze…...
Welcome to another trading week!! In appreciation of all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from our Weekly Research Report. Our weekly Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with thoughtful insights and analysis, graphs,…
The S&P 500 (SPX) did exact what everyone expected it to do this past trading week. If you believe that everyone had the same expectations and the expectations were exactly executed in price action, I have a bridge to sell you! The reality is that the best expectations are satisfied by considering the long-term trend…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we review the decline that was October and the potential market returns for November and beyond. The market has responded to the election with a robustness of breadth and has moved to focus…...
