Today I received an e-mail message from one of my concerned students: Hello Mr. Moadel, I’ve been running into a lot of information about a possible recession approaching in 2018, including but not limited to: Markets overextended Short-term treasury bond yields now greater than long-term yields Continued dollar devaluation Other countries beginning to drop the…
It’s Thursday January 18, 2018 and we are just shy of hitting the debt ceiling and in need of resolution and an agreement from the Federal government. Republican leaders are scheduled to bring forward a short-term spending bill to keep the government running through mid-February, The Wall Street Journal reported. The uncertainty surrounding a resolution to…
Critics on Twitter, StockTwits, and other social media platforms will tell short sellers (as well as call writers) of UVXY/VXX/etc. that it will require a whole lot of luck to continue to place these trades and not get mauled. My retort to that is that over time and over a large number of trades, it…
Last Friday, December 2017 monthly retail sales were reported. The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales rose 0.4% last month. Data for November was revised to show sales gaining 0.9% instead of the previously reported 0.8% increase. Retail sales in December rose 5.4% from a year ago. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and…
The Dow Jones industrial average e-mini futures were up nearly 1%, or 243 points, ahead of the U.S. markets opening for trading Tuesday morning. The move puts DJIA squarely in the cross hairs of achieving Dow 26,000 in a most remarkable fashion and speed. Some of the most recent market rally can be attributed to…
Having posted YouTube videos on just about every popular chart indicator, I’ve become familiar with everything from MACD to stochastics to the Bollinger bands and many more. The most common one, however, would be the simple moving average (though the exponential moving average is also popular). To be more specific, the 200-day moving average (200DMA)…
What a week it was for the major averages. The meteoric rise would almost have to find perma-bears and “top callers” in dismay had they not left long positions in play until the markets showed actual signs of resistance and subsequent declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 4.4% and the S&P 500 has rallied…
If you trade the within the VIX complex you are likely following a trend that has tapped into the “the nature of volatility”, which is to decline over time. But the question many may have not considered is why, why is that the nature of volatility. For most people trading the VIX complex or volatility…
We heard from one Federal Reserve President today, whom offered a cautionary statement to markets. The Federal Reserve may have to “press harder on the brakes” at some point over the next few years, increasing the risk of a hard landing for the economy, New York Fed President William Dudley said Thursday. It should be…
Entering Thursday, U.S. equity Futures are flat to slightly higher as bond yields pull back from yesterday’s headlines in price. After the 10-yr U.S. Treasury touched 2.59% it has pulled back to 2.53% in early morning trade. As the Asian markets traded overnight, headlines surrounding China’s “U.S. bond policy” came into focus. China’s regulators pushed…
