From inside Oaktree Financial Services monthly newsletter, written by famed investor Howard Marks. Here’s an excerpt from an excellent article that appeared at Bloomberg.com, written by Charles Lieberman about the media’s nearly constant shouting at us about the doom and gloom to come. If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market…...
1H22 was challenging for most risk assets as the Fed pivoted more sharply than most expected. The de-rating for US stocks was punctuated by a brief growth scare in June, although valuations never reflected the true risk to earnings, in our view. Today, we quantify that risk and cut EPS forecasts. Fire and Ice Part…...
Macro Strategy—QT Kicks into Second Gear: Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quantitative tightening (QT) program kicks into a higher gear in September. A doubling of the run-off cap on the Fed’s balance sheet plus persistent hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials will likely keep downward pressure on economic…...
In 1987 shortly after Black Monday Peter Lynch was interviewed about the minimal hedging incorporated within the Magellan Fund: “Perpetually planning for downside in constructs that perpetually move higher is a puzzle to me also.” ~ Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan Fund If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video,…...
Chair Powell and the Fed make it crystal clear that their job fighting inflation remains unfinished. Ironically, while bonds took the message in stride, stocks seemed to be shocked by the messaging. The path for stocks from here will be determined by earnings, where we still see material downside. Unfinished business for theFed…While the Fed’s…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 At the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500’s price was 3,785. There’s still another month left to go in the quarter that currently followed that 15%+ drop. We’ll have another 23 trading days to see if the markets can lean into the greater probability identified in the data sets…
With consecutive down weeks for the markets and the manner in which this past Friday played out for investors, dismay, pessimism, and doubt are likely to plague investor sentiment once again. On June 30, 2022, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished the first half of the trading year in bear market territory, down 20.58 percent. It…...
In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~ Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the link provided. (coming shortly) Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report!…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Our first chart comes to us from Chris Ci0vacco. As we had discussed in the past, there will be many, many market participants and pundits that will lay claim to the recent rally as proving nothing more than a bear market rally. Heck, a prominent Wall Street strategist recently offered that…
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this held a reasonable probability after a nearly 18% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) and roughly 20% rally in the Nasdaq (COMP). “In the table/study below from Steve Deppe, we take a look at what just…...
