Research Report Excerpt #1 Our first chart comes to us from Chris Ci0vacco. As we had discussed in the past, there will be many, many market participants and pundits that will lay claim to the recent rally as proving nothing more than a bear market rally. Heck, a prominent Wall Street strategist recently offered that…
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this held a reasonable probability after a nearly 18% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) and roughly 20% rally in the Nasdaq (COMP). “In the table/study below from Steve Deppe, we take a look at what just…...
If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever after an interim bear market decline of -27.77% or less. If this were a Bear Market Rally then the NASDAQ gain of +22.52% off the decline of -33.70%…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Recall the table above that we had been tracking and suggesting may prove favorable for the back half of 2022? Since 1932, any time the S&P 500 was down 14% or greater through the first 120 days of the year, from that point forward the market was higher by year-end. And…
Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very consistent pattern that we’ve analyzed and outlined for several months, as the bear market cemented itself in 2022. The good news is that the bear market may have moved from cementation to culmination. The technical analysis…...
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay invested when stocks fall? I buy the argument that there are some evolutionary things going on in our genetic makeup. Better to run first and ask questions later. But if we put that to the side…...
The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year. However, it’s also been a tailwind for earnings. Now, we are on the other side of that mountain, and operating leverage is rolling over likely more than the consensus expects. Be careful what you wish for…Inflation…...
While investors, traders and all market participants await the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), due out this Wednesday, here are some interesting thoughts and analysis from around the web. The above tweet from the Kobeissi Letter Twitter account is typical of the account holders bearish sentiment that pervades many investors. We strongly encourage avoiding such…
Macro Strategy—Powell On A Mission: U.S. policymakers responded to the pandemic shutdowns with the most aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in over 75 years (Exhibit 1). As a result, monetary policy since the pandemic is most like that of the years right after World War II (WWII). Strong M2 money-supply growth in the mid-1940s was…...
Is the market solidifying a bottom with a new uptrend having commenced since late June? Today’s conversation offers several indicators and historic technical guide posts that suggest investors should be looking to increase equity market exposure in the coming weeks and months if the historic probabilities repeat, if not rhyme. To watch the corresponding video…
