The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the greater the upside. ~George Soros You don’t have to know the future. What you want to know is how to play a PROBABILITY DRIVEN GAME with incomplete information and asymmetric opportunity sets. ~Alex Barrow If you would like to view…...
As the evidence builds around our more bearish earnings outlook, the stock market has traded lower again. While we think there is still a long way to go before reality is fairly priced, investors may face a volatile path in the absence of an “event” to clear the decks. The evidence is building…Since our earnings…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 COMPOUNDING is a difficult concept for traders! We dont understand geometric growth as easily as linear growth, because its not intuitive. The chart above helps to depict why, when stocks go up its a win, and when they go down its a longer-term win due to compounding. If you can’t rationalize, that should prices…
Markets are firmly in the thrawls of another September swoon, which is all-too familiar and painful for many investors. The strength and above average returns in the prior week were supplanted by an engulfing bearish candle and greater losses this past week. I reckon that nobody is having fun, and most investors are unambiguously hoping…...
Bear markets are about buying value! Bull markets are about realized profits for value seekers! In other words: “INVESTORS MAKE ALL THEIR MONEY IN BEAR MARKETS , THEY JUST DON’T KNOW IT AT THE TIME” ~Seth Golden “S&P500 is below both 50 & 200-DMA. More importantly, 50-DMA is below 200-DMA. For the S&P 500 all…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 After a 3rd straight weekly decline in the major averages, the AAII investor sentiment fell back to one of the lowest Bullish readings in history, only trumped by the lows seen this past June. Headlines reinforced the fear that investors have felt throughout 2022, and the price action has mirrored the…
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. As most are aware, the rollercoaster ride that is the 2022 investing landscape is a difficult one to traverse. We believe that the best approach to investing in 2022 is doing just that, investing. The risk/reward for trading is not optimal for most, as the whipsawing price action…...
From inside Oaktree Financial Services monthly newsletter, written by famed investor Howard Marks. Here’s an excerpt from an excellent article that appeared at Bloomberg.com, written by Charles Lieberman about the media’s nearly constant shouting at us about the doom and gloom to come. If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market…...
1H22 was challenging for most risk assets as the Fed pivoted more sharply than most expected. The de-rating for US stocks was punctuated by a brief growth scare in June, although valuations never reflected the true risk to earnings, in our view. Today, we quantify that risk and cut EPS forecasts. Fire and Ice Part…...
Macro Strategy—QT Kicks into Second Gear: Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quantitative tightening (QT) program kicks into a higher gear in September. A doubling of the run-off cap on the Fed’s balance sheet plus persistent hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials will likely keep downward pressure on economic…...
