The S&P 500 finished the month of June down -15%+ over the last 3 months and -20%+ over the last 6 months. It was a dreadful first half of the year, the worst first half of the year since 1962, and only slightly worse than 1970. If it sounds awful, it has felt even worse…...
Behavioral Finance tells us that you can broadly think of your happiness as just “Reality minus Expectations”. H = R-E; or said another way, are things going better for me than I thought or worse? If you aren’t expecting these selloffs to happen you get upset, reality smacks you in the face and your happiness…...
Key talking points We take a look at how consumers have historically adjust their spending during recessions and compare these findings to what Bank of America high frequency aggregated credit and debit card data is telling us right now. Our analysis suggests the consumer is not displaying the usual recessionary patterns at this time. Interestingly,…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 From May 20th to May 27th, the market rallied greater than 6%. One step forward, but unfortunately that resulted in 2 steps backward and new lows for the major averages in June. Nonetheless, these types of outsized weekly gains usually hold strong forward returns out 3-12 months. The key seems to…
The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied sharply this past week, gaining 6.45 percent. This is the second 6%+ weekly gain in just the last 4 week period. It’s rather remarkable, as we revisited such a feat of strength in our latest State of the Market. The question, given the frequency of this weekly occurrence is to…...
When you feel like giving up, realize that at that very moment, you are at the same fork in the road that everyone eventually faces. If you quit, you are being just like every other coward who takes the easy way out and chooses to give up. Choose to persist! ~Mark Minervini If you would…...
With our view for lower multiples and earnings now more consensus, the markets are more fairly priced. However, it does not price the risk of a recession, in our view, which is 15- 20% lower, or roughly 3000. The Bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished.…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator is currently at 0. This is probably the slowest of all indicators among investment banks. The track record when this hits zero is rather strong (unless double dip recession or systemic event). The previous times the Indicator hit zero were in August ’02,…
The great Q1 2022 earnings have proven the forward-looking nature of markets. I’m kicking-off this weekend’s Research Report with this assertion, because Seth and I are of the opinion it proves an important concept that investors need to better understand. MARKETS ARE FORWARD DISCOUNTING/LOOKING MECHANISMS. For each earnings and sales beat during the Q1 reporting…...
Equity Risk Premium holds key inputs/ingredients After major market sell-offs, it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve lower-lows. They are not impossible, obviously, just increasingly difficult. At some point, valuations and the hunt for real yield reign supreme. Let’s look at one reason why, and through the lens of the Equity Risk Premium (ERP). Why should…...
