Research Report Excerpt #1 We often hear that if you bought the peak in 2000 or peak in 2007 you would have had to have waited X number of years until the index got back to break-even, or its former high. While that’s a measured understanding of price, that doesn’t have to be the measured…
Welcome back traders and investors! I thought it a better way to kick-off this weekend’s Research Report, given the unwelcoming price action by equity markets through 2022. Unwelcoming price action today, but I hope to remind all open-minded and savvy investors that the term unwelcoming is subjective and demands perspective. The markets are in downtrends,…...
EVERY BEAR MARKET EVER FOMO turns into, GIDOT (glad I don’t own that), everyone claims they were raising cash ahead of time, everyone references 1987, 2000, 2008 or 1929, everyone quotes MikeTyson’s, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth and everyone thinks the selling will never end. If you would like…...
‘Fire’ AND ‘ice’ persist in the US…Monetary policy continues to tighten as confirmation emerges that growth is slowing (PMIs decelerating, earnings revisions deteriorating, and GDP growth contracted last quarter). The S&P 500 is still not priced for this backdrop, which we expect to continue. We’re in the midst of a hotter but shorter cycle in…...
By the team at Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Global Growth Weakening Fast, Fed On Track To Make Matters Worse: The escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict has caused growing worries about the prospects for world peace, food and energy supplies, global growth, and financial market conditions. Heightened risk aversion has resulted in a typical flight to the…...
Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY knows precisely WHERE markets will land. NOBODY knows WHY it will precisely land where it will, when it does. NOBODY knows and BEHAVES according to what they know inside their portfolio either. Doubt is universal, skill…...
Paul F. Desmond Lowry’s Reports Inc. 26 February 2002 Ask one hundred investors whether this is a bull market or a bear market, and you are likely to find their opinions split evenly down the middle. No one is really certain that the September 2001 low marked the end of the bear market and…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Keeping in mind that Sell-in-May-and-Go-Away doesn’t pertain solely to the month of May, but rather to the 6 month period starting in May and ending in October. This period holds the lowest probability for positive and average returns for the S&P 500 dating back to 1950. In speaking to the potential…
Within last weekend’s Research Report, the following was offered: “We are in unprecedented market waters and as such our flexibility as investors should remain elevated. Cash and Time; these are going to come in handy for the balance of the year.” The same holds true for the coming days, weeks, and likely months. Recall the…...
I bought Alibaba when everyone was selling it. I knew about the headlines, the China-tech crackdowns, and the inherent risks of owning a Chinese ADR. I read all the warning signs, bought and held Alibaba. Knowing all of the risks, I did it anyway. I took a loss, albeit on a small position. Why did…...
