With the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the first part half of our long standing narrative of Fire and Ice has played out. However, the headwinds to growth from this policy shift, still historically high inflation, payback in demand, and the war in Ukraine are not priced. Downgrading Financials to Neutral. Don’t Fight the Fed. The Fed…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 A perfect depiction of setup years is recognizable in the table below, which we’ve offered in past reporting: At its “closing” lows on March 14th, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 12.4% before the renewed strength. It’s been the 4th worst start to a year since 1928. As the table above clearly outlines, the…
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More on this later in our weekly Research Report, but it’s a critical concept we hope you employ in practice and find supporting your emotional quotient. The difference between the average year and a midterm election year…...
“The market indexes may have bottomed, but keep in mind, making a low, forming a bottom and reaching the point when stocks are moving up in earnest are three different things. I’m especially interested in the later.” ~Mark Minervini If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the…...
Macro Strategy—No Respite For The Weary: After two years of a pandemic, the world now has to deal with an escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Even assuming cooler heads prevail, and a diplomatic solution unfolds, the conflict has the potential to sow the seeds of a global recession. The Russian economy is small, yet…...
Every time the market falls a little, we worry it’s going to fall a lot. ~Michael Batnick When it is time to buy, you won’t want to! ~Walter Deemer Seth remains on vacation through this weekend. As such, we will not have a video for this week’s State of the Market or a weekend Research…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: As geopolitical risks intensified over the past month, our OWs in Commodities and Energy stocks outperformed, while other exposures, such as European stocks and Banks, underperformed. Looking ahead, we think it is important to remember what path we were on before the crisis started: namely, the global economy was on track to accelerate…...
“Bear markets do not end until: 1) sellers have panicked; and 2) buyers are panicked to buy again.” ~The late, great Paul Desmond “There is a time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing.” ~Jesse Livermore If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click…...
Powell made it clear the Fed will do whatever is necessary to maintain price stability which means tighter financial conditions even as risks to growth increase from oil price spike and pre-existing headwinds we have been highlighting for months. Sell any relief rallies from oversold conditions. Valuations still at risk as rates fall. 10-year Treasury…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 It may prove counterintuitive to many market participants, but the higher the VIX moves, the better the long-term returns. Having said that, we may have to withstand more volatility as we trek through weekly headlines and a CPI delivery this coming week. With an average intraday trading range of 2 percentage…
