In the short-run, it’s difficult to see an easy way out of the current geopolitical nightmare. The hopelessness of the day is often a precursor to the promise and eventual brighter, and better future. Most people get up in the morning looking to better themselves, better their future (Nick Maggiulli). That’s how society propels itself…
This trading week was probably highly frustrating for a great many traders and investors alike. For anyone trying to trade this market actively, they better know what they are doing, and even then they have a high probability of being frustrated. I think that pretty much sums up the composition of investor sentiment at this…...
“When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping” is true for investors. Income-oriented investors have always been advised to think like a landlord, not a trader, reminding themselves that they shouldn’t price their unit on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.” If you would like to watch the State of the Market weekly video,…...
Under a framework of knowns and unknowns, the world is a confusing place right now with the Russian invasion taking center stage. Our attention remains focused on what we can analyze, especially earnings growth, as we try to identify companies that can deliver at a reasonable price. Knowns and unknowns… The current investment environment is…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Lastly, we hear a lot of chatter surrounding China and the potential for the CCP to model what Russia is attempting to do with its war on Ukraine. We are not of the viewpoint that China will look to reacquire the independent Taiwan as Ukraine is attempting to do with Ukraine.…
The market is testing investors and traders alike. That is what the market tends to do during corrections; it is normal to be concerned. The fact that corrections are normal, drawdowns are normal and market volatility is normal suggests that investors and traders should perceive the troubled uptrend as opportunity and maintain their resolve. Remember…...
The world is now forced into the calculating of a new reality, one that may not be easily compared in modern history and since World War II. That is the guiding premise that the Western world order is likely confronting given the escalation of military conflict enforced by Russia on the sovereign Ukraine. On behalf…...
Fear and uncertainty building short-term but so many resolved near term In the first two months of 2022, a number of developments understandably rattled investor convictions and confidence around financial assets. One of the biggest lessons I learned at JPMorgan is the view “credit markets run on confidence, and they are good until they are…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Heading into 2022, we understood that the historic potential S&P 500 returns surrounding midterm cycles and Year 2 of Presidential cycles usually deliver higher volatility and lesser returns. There were no guarantees that history would repeat, but the seasonal cycles suggested that a strongly profitable 2021 should reinforce year-end rebalancing ahead…
This past trading week was met with more disappointment for the bulls, as a usually strong February monthly Options Expiration (OP/EX) week failed to achieve its trend since 1990 by delivering a favorable return. NOPE, the bears took the week once again, which has been the trend of 2022 thus far. While the bears may…...
