Part of successful investing is the ability to be able to forsake instant gratification and embrace delayed gratification! Not every trade will deliver an immediate profit, but every trade should be taken under the premise of an eventual profit! If you would like to watch the Weekly State of the Market video, please click the…...
With the focus on inflation and the Fed now an obsession, it’s time to pivot to growth and how much it will decelerate. We remain more concerned about growth than most and Friday’s consumer confidence number should not be overlooked in that regard. Correction remains incomplete. The CPI is old news. While last week’s inflation…...
Merrill Lynch: Macro Risk Macro Strategy—Risky Business (Cycle): We believe the probability of a recession this year is low and remain overweight Equities for now, but business cycle risk is rising for a number of reasons. Inflation is one of the biggest risks, as it could drive the Federal Reserve (Fed) to induce a recession.…...
“The S&P 500 has not bottomed in the months of January – May when it has finished the year in the RED on a total return basis since 1958. The S&P 500 has bottomed in the back half of the year all but 1 time when the index has ended the year in the RED…...
We continue to be more focused on what growth is going to do rather than rates and believe investors are still too optimistic, particularly as it relates to consumption. Exacerbating that risk is the fact that inventories are now rising rapidly. Maintain a Defensive Posture. Signs of weakness go beyond Omicron. 4Q earnings beat rates…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 As detailed since late last year, this is the S&P 500’s fourth longest run without a 10% pullback (~22 months vs. ~1 per year). Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14% drawdown annually. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 has traveled 460 trading days without a 10% correction…
While certain individual stocks demonstrated massive downside moves this past week, the indices managed a consecutive weekly gain. In 2021, investors are witnessing the turbulence of markets that hasn’t really been a focus topic since the pandemic lows in March of 2020. The absence of such market volatility for a protracted period of time, finally…...
“At the bottom, stocks will be cheap and no one will care.” ~Bob Farrell “When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to!” ~Walter Deemer If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week everyone and be on the lookout for this…...
Cross-asset Strategy: The equity market sell-off is overdone in our view, and we reiterate our call to buy the dip, particularly in cyclicals and small caps. Stocks are in bear market territory and erased their post-pandemic re-rating, small cap valuations are at 20Y lows, and investor sentiment is bearish. Many market metrics such as recent…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The data remains our guidepost (S&P 500 forward returns after falling below 200-DMA above table), which was a message also highlighted in Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference this past week. So I ask of you, “If the Fed remains data-dependent, then why shouldn’t you? Furthermore, if much of the pessimism around…
