The way Technicians feel about Fundamentals is the way Quants feel about Technicians!! Know which discipline aligns mostly with your aptitude, but grow your knowledge for all investing disciplines!! The best investors I know are able to utilize all 3 disciplines!! If you would like to watch the State of the Market video analysis hosted…...
7 GENERAL PRINCIPLES: What is evidence-based research 1. Nothing new under the sun: Importance of looking at cycles 2. Equities junior in capital structure: Bonds lead stocks 3. Don’t shout at the market: Market doesn’t care about my opinion 4. Stop carrying a “Lehman hammer”: Avoid cognitive bias 5. Confidence drives markets: Confidence changes faster…...
Macro Strategy—The U.S. trade-weighted dollar remains overvalued, much as we anticipated one year ago, and may well be able to maintain its balancing act over the next year. Consensus expectations remain timid, reflecting a continued reluctance to bet against the greenback. It’s hard to rule out upside surprises or dismiss downside risks to the dollar.…...
For those who have never experienced a bear market before, welcome to the worst of times! Know that for every bear market there is only the probability of a positive outcome, the inevitable resumption of a bull market. This is an elaborate way of exploring the idea that “it always gets better”. From time-to-time, conditions…
Ease is a greater threat to progress than hardship ~ Denzel Washington If you want to view our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and enjoy the holiday season! December typically starts out weak. And it has. But despite the recent worrisome headlines about the…...
While expected, we think the Fed’s pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset prices than most investors believe. Good news, supply is improving but will it arrive at the wrong time? Meanwhile, factors and styles remain volatile — stick with large cap defensive quality. Tapering is tightening for markets,…...
Key Metrics Earnings Growth: For Q4 2021, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.2%. If 21.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fourth straight quarter of earnings growth above 20%. Earnings Revisions: On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2021 was also…...
Look for further upside in 2022, the cycle is far from finished… the dip driven by new variant scare is unlikely to last… We believe there is further upside for stocks next year, despite a strong run so far, and do not see the recent new variant driven volatility as a game changer. Market could…...
A new COVID variant started the ruckus for markets, but we view that as secondary to the real culprit—the Fed’s more aggressive response to the “on Fire” data. Lower valuations is our call for 2022, and the Fed’s accelerated taper just brings it forward. Favor Large Cap Defensive Quality. We Didn’t Start the”Fire.” Over the…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Nonetheless, some variables provide greater force and as such are characterized as force factors. I’m of the opinion, the force factor of the day is monetary policy, the Fed (FOMC). The tweet stream above from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Friday identifies his commentary shortly after the release of the November Nonfarm Payroll report. James Bullard…
