“If falling 10% in stocks over a couple weeks is too much volatility for you, then being up 25% in 2021 is also too much. You can’t have one without the other. Consistency isn’t measured in the footsteps we take, but rather in the endurance of our journey.” ~Burt White Many of you may have…...
“An investor’s job is not to avoid the pain but to endure it.” If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for our weekend Research Report this Sunday! Corrections will test investors’ will and…...
With the Fed’s pivot now well understood and appreciated, investor attention now turns to growth which is slowing faster and more than expected. Defensives have been leading since mid-November, and that’s likely to continue until PMIs and earnings revisions trough. Winter is here…Investor attention should now turn away from the Fed and to the Ice…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 In order for drawdowns to not become realized losses, sometimes we also have to elongate our time frame. You’ll find that to be the case when markets come under pressure, as they have in 2022. This is obviously not a new concept, but a concept that many traders and investors haven’t…
It is not often that Finom Group is tasked with delivering a pessimistic interim outlook, but technicals are delivering signals that traders and investors shouldn’t ignore. Seth will walk us through some of these technicals while offering some suggestions on how to manage through the present market environment in a bit. For now, I’ll be…...
“Buying on red days is where longterm profits begin! 90%+ of investors/traders are dedicated to finding problems in a market that goes higher ~75% of the time! Don’t get caught in the problem-finding game or your psychology won’t let you see anything but problems; you’ll always be playing catchup. Build resources, not roadblocks to capital…...
Our new Fed forecast simply brings forward our call for lower equity valuations and raises the risk in the first half of the year. The median stock remains expensive even though the most egregiously priced stocks have corrected. Focus turns back to earnings for picking winners from here. New Fed forecast means valuation reset happens…...
Fed Funds Rate History The charts below show the targeted fed funds rate changes since 1971. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) didn’t announce its target interest rate after meetings until October 1979. The Fed adjusted the rate through its open market operations. Banks were forced to guess what the rates would be as a result. The Fed…
Macro Strategy—Expansion and Profits Growth to Continue in 2022: Current Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and the leads and lags involved between changes in monetary policy and changes in economic conditions suggest policy will not become a meaningful restraint to growth in 2022, so real growth is likely to remain above trend and inflation high, in…...
“Anyone can get lucky for a short period of time. But consistent outperformance over long periods is probably evidence of skill.” ~Bill Miller **Unfortunately, due to scheduling issues, we will not be delivering a weekly Research Report this Sunday. We will start up our typical 3-on 1-off regiment in the following week however. To watch…...
