Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger than $6.5trn fiscal stimulus, $120bn monthly Fed purchases and a YoY baseline economic comparison of near 0.” To review the weekly SOTM video, please click the following link. Now let’s dive into some of the technicals,…...
While there is some sympathy for our mid-cycle transition, most think it’s too early, or not worth acting on. There is also push back on our call for lower valuations and some of our specific relative value trades. Finally, investors are more bullish on the earnings outlook for next year. Some,gradual, buy in to the…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 All of this standing in place has brought about a significant divergence in the 2010 analogue above. Despite a second down wave during the first 3 days of the past trading week, with the bounce-back on Thursday (5/20), the S&P 500 was never more than -4% from the last high reached…
The past trading week almost mirrored what we saw 2 weeks ago when the S&P 500 (SPX) fell in the first 3 trading days of the week, but then rallied on Thursday and Friday to close out the week. That rally into the weekend, 2 weeks ago, wasn’t enough to turn the index positive for…...
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy has peaked, and valuation is falling. Taxes, tapering & transitions temper index returns. Look for alpha in relative value, themes, and reasonably priced growth and cyclicals as mid-cycle transition runs its course. Mid-cycle is here, and…...
While Finom Group does not offer a full-scale Research Report this particular weekend, we do have some thoughts to outline and through the following charts. The question investors have on their minds, after an 8% Nasdaq (COMPQ) correction, 10% Russell 2000 (RUT) correction, and recent 4% pullback in the S&P 500 (SPX)… then watching all…
The narrative surrounding inflation, or “reflation” as I recognize it to be, is pretty compelling. The financial media does a stand-up job of driving a fearful story that introduces many negative consequences from inflationary prices. History suggests that such fears are, indeed, overblown and generally only produce momentary equity market consequences. So before you get…
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” ~George Soros “Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t.” ~Seth Klarman Markets crash from oversold, not overbought!We’re certainly oversold here, so remember our 5-percent maxim/rule:…...
...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Are we on the cusp of another double-digit Nasdaq correction? Anything is possible, and since reaching it’s new all-time high on 4/29/2021 of 14,211, the growth and tech-heavy Nasdaq has once again come under pressure, even with bond yields under pressure. From the Nasdaq high to the most recent low, the…
