A question facing most investors today is the outlook for equities, and more broadly market risk. This ties into the outlook for the COVID-19 recovery, inflation and various technical parameters (such as flows, positioning, volatility and bond-equity correlation). Recently, we have seen a number of strategists calling for a market correction or indicating equities are…...
Does the Rotation Need a Vacation? The new leadership in small caps, cyclical stocks and commodities is well established at this point and definitive in its messaging, in our view – i.e.,economic growth and inflation is likely to surprise on the upside. However, rates remain in “disbelief”and something has to give with equity markets having…...
“There are two types of investors”, according to Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett: those who want to get rich, and those that want to stay rich. That’s how Hartnett begins his latest Flow Show note, warning that “when those who want to stay rich start acting like those who want to get rich, it suggests…
Finom Group’s official weekly Research Report will begin a new cycle (3 weeks on, 1 week off) on January 31, 2021. In the mean time, here are varied thoughts and analysis on a wide range of subject matter impacting the economy and financial markets from analysts and strategists. Enjoy your weekend and if you have…...
A widespread view, especially among sell-side banks, is that the currently high equity volatility as depicted by the VIX is likely to return to more ‘normal’ lower levels (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows the level of the VIX at the end of each quarter, compared with the return of the S&P 500 Index over the…
To study the history of market behaviors and/or performance puts the average investor at an advantage, when compared to the “lone wolf” approach to investing. The markets are more dedicated to disseminating human behavior than they are price discovery potentials. While circumstances are seemingly always different/unique, human behavior proves the one most constant variable in…
Welcome to another trading week!! In appreciation of all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from our Weekly Research Report. Our weekly Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with thoughtful insights and analysis, graphs,…
There is no shortage of uncertainty as the new year begins, so in an attempt to provide some clarity, we briefly answer some of the key macro questions of 2021. What does a Senate majority for the Democrats mean for the markets? The Democratic sweep of Georgia gives the incoming administration some more legislative latitude,…
With ten trading sessions of the New Year complete, January and 2021 are off to a modest start. The Covid19 vaccine rollout has proven more difficult than previously forecast by governments, economists and the like. The economy has, by many measures, found a soft patch in economic activities. Lastly, but certainly not least and shy…...
Last Monday, in our January Chartbook, we suggested that the Georgia runoff could be a wildcard for the potential resumption of Value rotation. This would largely end the digestion of the big November Value spike that was taking place over the past 4-5 weeks. We are not fully out of the woods yet, as the…...
