Once vaccinations start, how quickly can they lower daily new COVID-19 cases: Although the market understands that vaccination will lower daily new cases, the trajectory of the decline remains one of the top incoming questions we receive. We leveraged our previous epidemiological model and,after updating it for the recent uptick in daily cases (mean (sd)…
12 month price momentum is a powerful driver of flows and performance. Over time, price momentum strategies aren’t mean reverting, one reason they are so popular. Over the past decade more strategies have adopted momentum as a key input to their processes so momentum begets momentum. Components of price momentum leaders/laggards change periodically. As recessions…...
Welcome to another trading week!! In appreciation of all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from our Weekly Research Report. Our weekly Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with thoughtful insights and analysis, graphs,…
As we wrap-up our third year of operations at Finom Group, we extend our gratitude to each and every member/participant. 2020 has been one of the more difficult years for our country, let alone investors who chose to battle the peak-trough-peak in the markets. Finom Group sincerely hopes that our weekly Research Reports, State of…...
Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is clearing with the business cycle expanding and risks diminishing. We expect a “market nirvana” scenario for equities with the melt-up continuing into 1H21,…...
Market and VolatilityCommentary Equity Macro and Quantitative Outlook for 2021 Our outlook for 2021 is positive for equities and more broadly for risky assets (see Global Asset Allocation). We expect markets to be driven by recovery from the COVID-19 crisis at the back of highly effective vaccines and continued extraordinary monetary and fiscal support. Given…...
Please click the following link to review our commentary on Sentiment, Leverage, Is it Early 2018 Again or…? What would you say is the most interesting finding in the historical data noted below? The table identifies years in which the S&P 500 captures a 30% or greater return. The most interesting concept concerning the chart…...
Welcome to another trading week!! In appreciation of all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from our Weekly Research Report. Our weekly Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with thoughtful insights and analysis, graphs,…
There has been a punditry that has remained sidelined or angered by the markets’ surmising of the future, and with record-level stock prices over the last several months. Those who chose to join this camp of investors and market watchers has likely been found wanting for better entry points. When those better entry points arrived,…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s edition we take a look back at a strong November to gauge the probabilities for S&P 500 returns in December and beyond. Market breadth and history paint a picture of a strong uptrend that should continue into 2021, but without a game…...
