Narrative vs. Flows, Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop, QE/QT and Liquidity Narrative vs. Flows By Marko Kolanovic, PhD and Bram Kaplan, CFA Since our last note, the market continued moving higher from heavily oversold levels and low investor positioning. Positioning has somewhat increased but still remains subdued (all HF beta: ~9th %ile, Volatility Targeting Beta: ~1st %ile,…...
The two biggest stories from Tuesday’s market trading came from the late afternoon Brexit vote, which failed to pass, and Netflix (NFLIX) choosing to raise prices. The bill was rejected by 432 votes to 202. The 230-vote defeat is thought to be the largest in U.K. political history. Following a controversial amendment, the U.K. government…
After two consecutive days of losses for the major indices, first back-to-back loss of the New Year, equity futures are looking flat on Tuesday. The losses for the U.S. equities have been minor compared to that of the Q4 2018 period and with volatility somewhat tempered. More importantly, the losses come as earnings season has…
We are off to a spectacular year in the markets with the S&P 500 (SPX) up roughly 3.5% since January 2nd… and that would be the bare naked truth if it weren’t for the fact that we began the year with a bear market that began late last year. The current snap back rally for…...
Please click on the link below to view the video! https://zoom.us/recording/play/-EODMMenR0S7ddbkdemXIw-5t8oHYem7duLoTJxDWR13rDmK01G3EB9TpccysLt4?continueMode=true Video Outline: Introduction to State of Market (opening minutes) December market collapse, liquidity drain, sentiment readings, falling into bear market (3-6 minutes in) Snapback rally from oversold conditions and pension fund rebalancing, not in recession, 1,000 point Dow rally typical of bear market conditions…
Heading into Thursday’s market open on Wall Street we’ve got some good news and some bad news. Firstly, the bad news: U.S. equity futures are down across the board by roughly .5% in the 5:00 a.m. EST hour. Crude oil popped above $52 a barrel on Wednesday, but supply/output was higher than expected and the…
Is optimism creeping back into the market? Are investors signaling that it is “all clear”? Look, I get it, the market has rallied significantly off of the S&P (500) daily closing low of 2,351 and now looks to be stabilizing. Gaining stability, however, is a process that usually consisted of a low-level retest. Take a…
2018 could easily be characterized as the year that volatility came back into the market place due to Quantitative Tightening and geopolitical/macro concerns. Asset prices reached record levels in 2017 and through much of 2018, but as the Fed ratcheted higher its rate hikes (4 rate hikes in FY18) the market became increasingly fearful that…
Languishing over the 2018 market won’t do investors any good, but it is important to reflect on what made for a rather unique investing/trading atmosphere. 2018 could easily be characterized as the year that volatility came back into the market place due to Quantitative Tightening and geopolitical/macro concerns. Prior to 2018, the “buy the dip…...
