By Dr. James M. Dahle, WCI Founder It’s a funny quirk of human nature that we learn more from bad experiences and examples than we do from good ones. Today, let’s talk about 35 signs that you are not a very good investor. How to Know You Are Terrible at Investing If you recognize yourself in…
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Approaching the end of the year, it is natural to wonder: What lies ahead? Where does this road lead? Often, navigating markets is a test for how much ambiguity we can handle. How many conflicting pieces of data can we hold in our minds without giving in to confusion or worse nihilism. There is little…...
This week’s focus is likely to be centered on CPI and the Fed. To us, that is yesterday’s news; while it’s important for the next week / year-end trading ranges, the final chapter to this bear market is all about the path of earnings estimates, which are far too high, in our view. Inflation data…...
Key takeaways • Consumers have proven resilient in 2022. While they are likely to have a tougher time next year, especially if the labor market deteriorates, they are starting 2023 in decent financial shape. Deposit balances are coming down, but slowly, and credit card usage does not currently look out of line with pre-pandemic levels. …
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The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of a new cycle (often associated with the beginning of a bull market) are coming into focus. It’s only in its infancy, still far from firing on all cylinders, and it could yet be aborted. Nonetheless, while…...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree’s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest…...
I’ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year – plus some recent musings and conversations – to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I’ll start by examining a number of things that I think don’t matter. What Doesn’t Matter: Short-Term Events In The Illusion…...
By Michael Cembalest: December 1, 2022 Non-Fungible Trainwreck. First, I’m pleased to offer readers of the Eye on the Market a holiday gift that I commissioned for you: a one-of-a-kind “APE Innovation ETF” non-fungible token. Just copy and paste the image below and your digital journey will begin. Maybe hang it in the digital living…
