In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree’s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will…
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have...
Equity markets are in the midst of a growth scare for reasons we think will ultimately be resolved by...
The month of October gets all the “love,” but since 1990, August has been the cruelest month for stocks....
The Major Trend Index held at a Neutral reading for the week ended July 26th. A second consecutive weekly...
Part of successful investing is the ability to be able to forsake instant gratification and embrace delayed gratification! Not...
Last week, Target Corp. (TGT) offered a rather gruesome outlook for 2017 that came on the heels of a very weak...
