Research Report Excerpt #1 Year-to-date through Q3 had been the worst start for a 60/40 portfolio since 1974, which was also an inflation and Fed hiking regime. However, as detailed in the Ned Davis Research chart below, following the other 2 drops below -20%, the 60/40 portfolio then evidenced strong gains for the next 2 years. MAXIMUM…
I’ll be flying solo for this weekend’s Research Report, as Edward is off this weekend. So forgive any shortcomings in spelling and grammar, kindly. With that being said, welcome back, even if the markets are not altogether welcoming in 2022. It’s a bear market that is sparing no investor, no portfolio, and approaching levels not…...
Everything you need to know about what separates the big winners from everyone else. “Signals” are sexy, exciting and mysterious. “Learning” is hard work. Same as it ever was. ~Jay Kapeal If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Have a great trading week…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The average duration of a bear market is 446 days (calendar days). The average duration of a bull market is 2,069 days. The average bear market return is -38.4% while the average bull market return is +209 percent. I’m of the belief that the savvy investor should be willing and able to choose in favor of bullish outcomes,…
Welcome back Finom Group members! As we kick-off the monthly reporting cycle, we are recognizing gains for the first week of the 4th quarter of 2022. We are also recognizing that it doesn’t truly feel that way for most investors, given how the trading week ended with a steep sell-off on Friday. Bear market rallies…...
Hardest thing for most traders/investors to do is to pull the trigger and execute the trade. They put risk management ahead of risk taking, even though logic dictates there is no risk to manage absent risk taking. It simply sounds smart to speak of risk management. and diversification, while the greatest returns come from concentrated…...
The investing landscape couldn’t be any better for investors than it has proven to be in 2022. Now, before you stop reading for fear of lunacy of the author, let me explain. One of the foremost principles of investing is to “buy low and sell high”. In other words, value is the friend of the…
Cross-asset Strategy: Stocks and bonds continued to sell off last week on central bank hawkishness. The hawkish Fed outcome with significant upward revision to the dots leads us to now expect a terminal rate of 4.5% by early 2023. While the market has now settled into a view that Fed will continue with outsized hikes,…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 “Assuming, assuming one could be that best market timer in the world, the difference between that amount of work and simply buying the index ETF and holding it through ups and downs is a meager 1 percent. That’s it, that’s all one achieves above the Buy and Hold strategy. In other…
In roughly the last 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) have lost 10% of their value. That is how quickly the market is derating. The decline has happened ahead of, through, and after the latest FOMC rate announcement. This past week, and after the benchmark index declined nearly -3.5% in the…...
