Since the S&P 500’s 8-day win streak ended on November 8th, I think we can say that the market has done two things: 1) Committed to the seasonal pattern 2) Gone nowhere with increased volatility. The last two weeks have produced uninspiring price action for market participants, with both bullish and bearish narratives thrown into…...
“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.” ~Jesse Livermore If you would like to review the weekly…...
With financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current prices. However, strong nominal GDP growth should continue to provide plenty of good investment opportunities at the stock level for active managers. Uncertainty breeds dispersion. The economic and political environment has been permanently altered from its…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Since 1928, a great many things have changed in our lives, in the economy, and around the world. There have been many economic shocks, World Wars, epidemics, advances in technology, and the list goes on and on. The point here is: No matter what you may think can or will trip…
We’re back! It has been a couple of weeks since our last weekly Research Report, but we hope some time away from study and due diligence did not find investors worse for wear, as the market has achieved new highs. Those new highs have been met with yet another modest period of consolidation, thus far.…...
Market participants can access data points; access is NOT the struggle. The struggle is in the SEQUENCING of data points Without the appropriate sequencing, the data loses its utility for an investor/trader, rendering it NOISE in a sea of data points. ~Golden Nuggets To review the weekly State of the Market video, please click the…...
The market was hunting for a reason to alleviate the overheated and overextended conditions. Recall just how overheated the market was coming into the week, as depicted by the distance the S&P 500 had traveled beyond the 50-DMA, and with a 14-day RSI of 76 and 5-day RSI above 93. If you want to believe…
The US equity market continues to ride the wave of liquidity and seasonal FOMO. As we approach our bull case of 4800, the risk/reward deteriorates, particularly with leverage high. The consumer looks ready for a strong and early holiday shopping season—supporting the near-term positive trend. Riding the wave. Equity markets continue to ride the wave…...
With just 2 months remaining in the 2021 trading year, investors are gearing up for the typical seasonal tailwinds, but also recognizing that markets are trading at all-time highs heading into a “tapering… storm?” That’s a question I’ll leave open-ended for investors and traders alike, as each will be approaching the end of the year…...
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