The Fed’s “surprise” move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago. When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer. Tapering is Tightening but Tightening began months ago. The…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 With this front of mind, I would suggest that investors not dwell on this past week’s retreat in the markets, even if Friday’s market action culminated with the lows of the week. One week, one day… that does not make a month or a year. While Friday’s retreat in the major…
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. Although last weekend was our monthly off-reporting week, the market did not disappoint our expectations for potential drawdowns in the major indices. Quad or Triple Witching weeks are always tricky, but June’s monthly option expiration week is usually one of the worst of the year. When this calendar…...
“Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.” -Fred Schwed, Jr. To review this week’s State of the Market video, please click the following link. This week we discuss the…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields. In other words: “do bonds know something about macro fundamentals that equities and commodities don’t?” Our answer is ‘no’, and we explain the technical drivers likely responsible for the recent bond rally. We advise clients to…...
The Fed is likely to start discussing the tapering path, and over the next few meetings potentially indicate the timing of its implementation. JPM’s view is that tapering will commence from early next year. This is even as inflation fears are probably not going to keep accelerating. To be sure, inflation is likely to…...
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You can know everything there is to know about markets, technicals, fundamentals and still be a poor investor/trader… why? Most, not some but most, market participants have a below average EQ (Emotional Quotient) Mind over Matter! Wisdom of Words… Or Something Like That “90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike,…...
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short, inflation debate remains undecided and will likely stay that way for awhile longer. This will keep equity markets choppy and the debate about Value over Growth alive as well. With earnings season over, all eyes are…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Over my many years of investing and providing a financial market service to investors, I’ve found the perception principle reins supreme amongst investors/traders. It’s often very, very detrimental to the average investor/trader as well. Here’s what I mean by way of the following tweet via Michael Santoli of CNBC. (Again, Seth’s…
