By David Kastner: Sector rotation is perhaps one of the best known and widely implemented investment strategies within equity portfolios. What is it and how does it work? Sector rotation is an active investment strategy in which equity sectors are tactically overweighted or underweighted against a benchmark weighting, such as the S&P 500®index. As you can…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Market. In this week’s episode we take a look at robust and overheated breadth readings. Additionally, such conditions inform investors of the long-term trend and the S&P 500 forward return potential. While many are calling for larger corrections, it’s more important to continue to stick to one’s game…...
A boom or bust for the economy and markets? Risky assets will continue to benefit Our top 10 takeaways follow: 1. US growth is entering a boom period with positive spillovers. J.P. Morgan’s Economics Research team estimates US growth will reach 9.5% in 2Q and 8.3% in 3Q before trending down to 6.3% for the…
Strategy Equity and credit markets continue to grind higher, undisturbed by the recent rise in bond yields or negative news about corporate taxation. The majority of investors appear to be focusing instead on the fundamental drivers of risk markets such as the growth and earnings trajectories which appear to remain very supportive for risk…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 At the industry level, since the end of March, here is what the healthy rotation has looked like: If there has been a lesson the market has aimed to teach and inform newer investors since the election period last year it is that rotations are the sign of a healthy bull…
Another week, another record high for the S&P 500 (SPX). This makes 20 record highs already in 2021. While it may seem as if the benchmark index has gone up in a straight line, active portfolio managers know that has not been the case, with 2 consolidation periods of greater than 4% taking place over…...
Thank you for joining us for this week’s State of the Market. My voice is back, to a greater degree at least! In this week’s SOTM we take a look at how the market rotations are affecting the strength and weakness of year-to-date trends. In 2021, investors will need to adapt to a less speculative…...
Weekly Warm-up: More on The Mid Cycle Transition to Quality; Staples over Discretionary Last week we argued for a faster transition to mid cycle dynamics which means it’s time to upgrade the quality in one’s portfolio. One sector shift that makes sense is Discretionary to Staples which received a lot of pushback. Today, we defend…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 The typical April return has been good, but not great. Over the past 10 years, April has been only the eighth-strongest month of the year, with a 0.9% median SPX return. Since 1991, though, the median April return has been 1.3%—the fifth-best month of the year:1 Research Report Excerpt #2…
The S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed in March of 2009 at 666, the Devil’s Bottom as it has become known. As of this past week’s record closing high, the S&P 500 stands close to 4,020. That’s a gain of more than 500%, and if we include dividends, it’s now up more than 660% from the March…...
