No month-end equity selling but likely buying, what if ship breaks, Oil and CTAs Over the past few days, the equity market was fairly weak despite no real change in the macro fundamental outlook. The Fed has remained dovish, the US stimulus was released as planned, and the pandemic and vaccination in the US are…...
It’s never easy, is it? As an active portfolio manager, trader or investor, it seems as though once we move beyond one obstacle, one fearful market narrative there is another one right around the corner if not immediately following the last fearful narrative. What could tip the scales from a bullish trend to a bearish…
If ever there was a week to take off and simply ignore it’s a FOMC meeting week. The second lease useful week to trade is a Quad Witching week. Last week, we had both and the market behaved as I anticipated, goofy! We already had an idea that things were going to be different…...
Cross-asset strategy: This week’s Fed reiteration that it won’t hike for about three years despite extraordinary fiscal stimulus is extending the repricing of risk premia across financial markets. For us, the direction of risk premia is unambiguously higher in Bonds (high breakevens, steeper curves), but lower in Equities, HY Credit and Commodities (less earnings,…...
Over the last couple of weeks, we have made adjustments to guidance and targets in a number of different asset classes including equities and fixed income. We meaningfully increased our expectations for economic growth here at home and also adjusted upward projections for multiple global regions and overall world growth. That was the foundation on…
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode. In this week’s Episode we introduce Chris Dover and experience his systems-based trading strategy. Additionally, we take a look at the quarter-long rally in bond yields that may be at a tipping point. “The stock…...
The derating of stocks is not over but may take a pause as stimulus boosts liquidity. Our cycle analysis strongly suggest PEs will fall this year as rates rise and earnings revisions flatten out. This is a high conviction, non-consensus view we think is already playing out at the stock level. While unfinished in our…...
Research Report Insight #1 We’ve identified individual stocks in previous Research Reports that we deemed reasonable opportunities, and we understand that many Finom Group members have benefited from such disseminations. Below are 2 such opportunities that were outlined in mid-October 2020, which have delivered strong profits since: “With the Industrials sector having performed very well…
Stocks danced higher this past week to produce their best week since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 32,000 for the first time while the S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both achieved record levels this past week. The Nasdaq (NDX) climbed out of a 3-week losing streak and correction territory…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we record live on Thursday and discussing the recent correction in the Nasdaq, what might bring about the next consolidation and rotation in the markets and how the bond market is expressing signs of exhausted selling. Primary reasons for correction:…...
