US Equity Strategy Election Implications for Equities, Democrat AgendaWinners and Losers With US election only a few months away, one scenario that has been of growing interest among investors is a potential Democratic sweep setting the stage for a shift in the legislative agenda. The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will…...
While the rise in new, positive Covid-19 cases continue, the S&P 500 (SPX) has hinted at the potential of re-testing the bear-to-new bull market highs. Both of these benchmarks are on the same path and seemingly aiming to befuddle the broader investor community. One proposed reason for the equity market’s defiance of the alarming rise…
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high levels of stress and lags the recovery in other risk premia. We recommend monetizing this rich risk premium by selling Jun’21 variance swaps vs. buying 0.75x the vega notional in Jun’21 vol swaps on the S&P…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode, we discuss a reversal of fortune in the markets as the S&P 500 rose sharply throughout the week. Nonetheless, the market remains rang-bound between 2,965 at the lower bound and 3,232, the most recent relief rally…...
I haven’t written an article like this one in the past, so bear with me here folks. This is the type of article that many would characterize as a “public service announcement” or PSA for short. My main consideration for this article are resources. One of the most important concepts about investing that I’ve discovered…
Authored by Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan Stanley Will the V Disrupt the V? We received a stark reminder this week that the fight against COVID-19 is not over, as new cases globally thrice reached new highs. Unsurprisingly, the number one question we get from investors is whether this resurgence…
2020 Mid-Year Outlook for Economies and Markets as the World Re-opens Summary and Replay of 2020 Mid-Year Outlook Virtual Meeting Global growth is set to rebound in 3Q on the easing of lockdown restrictions, emerging signs of economic recovery, and improving consumer sentiment, but investors should be more selective over the next six months as…...
Welcome to another trading week!! In appreciation of all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from our Weekly Research Report. Our weekly Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with thoughtful insights and analysis, graphs,…
Has the COVID-19 reemerging positive case ratio finally caught up to what many have described as a market that is overvalued, overheated and disconnected with “reality”? Whosever’s reality that might be? There are always doubts and conjectures when a market proves to consolidate, especially when the headlines are negative and flowing on a minute-by-minute basis.…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode, we discuss how we got to this point in the S&P 500’s rally from a bear market into a new bull market. What are the implications from a presidential election year? Is another Cares Act…
