Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen in 40 years, the term “stagflation” has been resurrected as a risk for the U.S. economy. Currently, however, the low unemployment rate is inconsistent with stagflation. What’s more, inflation remains on a downtrend, and wage growth…...
The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While the MTI graphic shown remains imbalanced, the “net weight” of all the evidence is on the positive side of the ledger, and we’ve kept net equity exposure at around 57% in our tactical portfolios in recent…...
Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all the variables at play for any given time period, whatever price is doing that tends to be the most influential variable moving investor risk appetite and strategists’ outlook for price action. We saw how this principle…...
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Welcome back Finom Group investors and traders! A 3-week decline and then a 3-week rally; what does it mean? From a big picture 🏞 perspective it means a lot of chop and slop with respect to price action. Go ahead and type that phrase in the finomgroup.com search engine to reveal that is precisely what…...
Public Service Announcement: Watch The VIDEO HERE! Bear markets happen, on average, once every 4.1 years. There have been 3 bear markets in the last 5.5 years. Going out on a limb here, where the honey pot is 🍯, but if remaining bearish you might be stretching too far beyond the probable outcomes. Since the…...
Dr. Ed Yardeni Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). It was up 5.4% q/q (saar) and 4.1% y/y. Today, they both rallied despite a hot Q1 unit labor costs inflation report. We agree with the markets’ response to today’s news because it is consistent…...
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Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This weekend’s Research Report will be abbreviated, as we maintain our outlook for 2024, supported by the completion of the Q1 2024 economic data releases. The S&P 500 (SPX) capped off its best week of the year (bottom chart) as it rose 2.67% from last Friday. The weekly gain ends…...
Try telling an investor that April is typically one of the absolute best months of the year for market returns after the first 3 trading weeks of April 2024. You might get a rather snarky reply. The S&P 500 (SPX) has now drawn down more than -5% since achieving its all-time high in the Q1…...
