There has been a punditry that has remained sidelined or angered by the markets’ surmising of the future, and with record-level stock prices over the last several months. Those who chose to join this camp of investors and market watchers has likely been found wanting for better entry points. When those better entry points arrived,…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s edition we take a look back at a strong November to gauge the probabilities for S&P 500 returns in December and beyond. Market breadth and history paint a picture of a strong uptrend that should continue into 2021, but without a game…...
The equity market, for which we’ll use the S&P 500 (SPX) as our guide, will always maintain varying degrees of volatility. Volatility can be managed and absorbed by investors in a variety of ways. Having said that, there is only 1 way in which to trade the market, WITH VOLATILITY! Please take note of the…...
Welcome back to our weekend Research Report and look inside all the macro-market driving forces for which we analyze the landscape alongside investors/traders. With only 4 trading weeks to go in 2020, it goes without saying that the macro-market outlook is likely to improve in 2021, given the unprecedented deteriorations in many macro-market factors we…...
Investors are increasingly embracing the recovery. We laid out our bullish 12 month view in our 2021 Outlook (Show Me the Money!) and spent last week talking with investors around the globe. Our call for higher earnings to drive returns seemed mostly consensus and we received little push back on our call for multiples to…...
Goldman Sachs chief political economist Alec Phillips Goldman Sachs now offers that it’s “base case” for the next fiscal relief package no longer anticipates a stimulus before 2021, resulting in a 50% cut to its Q4 GDP forecast, from 6% growth to 3%. Its chief political economist Alec Phillips writes that with Congress having recessed for Thanksgiving…...
Show Me the Money! 2020 was all about beta and understanding how equity markets trade in and around a recession that handed us the fattest pitch we’ve seen in a decade. 2021 will be much more about stock picking (alpha) and should favor those companies that can deliver earnings growth that isn’t already expected or…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has surpassed its previous high among a global pandemic and an uncertain economy. The index is up almost 11% year-to-date, as investors anticipate more good news regarding a COVID-19 vaccine. Nonetheless, it proved a strange week in price action terms as Monday’s 4% gap up was almost erased by the end…...
The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine. We expected an imminent vaccine outcome and a rotation…...
We remain committed bulls over next 6-12 months. When bull markets simultaneously begin with a new economic cycle, they typically last for years,not months or quarters. As such, we believe this bull market has a long way to run both in time and price. Our calls for a 10% correction in August and then again…...
