Are private sector balance sheets, income & profits, liquidity, and pessimism simply too strong to have a recession? By Jim Paulsen Recession risk is weighed in several ways. Are the resources available to the economy – land, labor, and capital — becoming scarce? Are pent-up demands nearing saturation? How many years old is the recovery? …...
As we construct this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, the February Personal Income & Expenditures (PCE) data has been released. No real surprises in the data, although the M/M headline PCE was slightly softer than economists forecast at .2% vs .3% estimates, for February 2024. I would be of the opinion markets already knew, and even…...
As a reminder, this is Finom Group’s off-reporting weekend, however we continue to disseminate relevant and trusted 3rd-party research by the former chief equity strategist of The Leuthold Group, Jim Paulsen. We’ll see you back here next weekend with our proprietary research report and revised S&P 500 price target for the forward 12-month period. Currently,…...
If there is 1-thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 24 years, it’s that down is going to happen; accept it for value opportunity. Don’t try to stop it! Down is good; down is buy low. When viewed any other way, the resulting outcome is usually “down and out”. To watch this week’s video…...
While the Nvidia hype would make you believe the company owns and drives the entire AI narrative, investors would do well to realize how early we are in the AI monetization cycle. By The Mann Institute: As the most-hyped company in the world, Nvidia, hosts its conference on the future of AI this week, which…...
That’s a newer development for the market rally, down 2 consecutive weeks. Whether or not this detraction from the bullish trend morphs into a truer corrective wave, akin to the corrective Summer/Fall wave of 2023, is still undetermined. In all logic, the further the market climbs without a period of price consolidation, the likelihood of…...
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To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do the rally enough justice. The S&P 500 (SPX) benchmark index is now up 16 of the last 19 weeks. During this period, the S&P 500 rallied more than 24%, impressive. This is the 20th such occurrence…...
The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended March 1st. Bullish narratives surrounding AI adoption and “stealth” liquidity injections from the U.S. Treasury continue to flourish, and—like most market narratives—they are not without merit. However, the Sentiment category, which barely escaped a downgrade last week, suggests…...
