Cross-Asset Strategy: The October US CPI release delivered the largest downward inflation surprise since the start of the pandemic, raising the likelihood of a soft landing scenario. However, with a Fed Funds rate close to 5%, a recession will be difficult to avoid unless the Fed more meaningfully pivots. As such, our optimism is tempered…...
By Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group Inflation has been slowing for the last several months and finally appeared in the “headline” numbers last week. Although a single comforting CPI report will not eclipse ongoing concerns about inflation, leading up to that report, there was a broad array of evidence that inflation was moderating and…...
If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must choose from one of two pains. The pain of discipline or the pain of regret! ~Jim Rohn If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Have…...
Ahead of the holiday and turn of year period, Morgan Stanley publishes their outlook for 2023. The outlook is no different with regards to future revisions that are always a possibility as the firm monitors the macro, geopolitical, technical and seasonal points of interest from month to month. For 2023, our base case does not…...
Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game! ~Ben Graham If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market, please click the provided link (to be provided shortly). Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s macro-market Research Report!…...
With each passing week in 2022, we analyze, scrutinize, and rationalize a litany of macro-fundamental, technical, and quantitative data. This week, however, we won’t be doing the same ole’ same ole’, as the saying goes. For many Finom Group members you likely have read our works throughout the year or heard our chief equity strategist…...
“Time in the market” is only a benefit if the market is heading in a positive direction. Otherwise, idleness is a curse not a blessing. ~Willie Delwiche If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Be on the look out for this weekend’s macro-market Research…...
Since at least Jackson Hole, the narrative has been that inflation is a big problem, and the Federal Reserve was up for the fight—certifying it would raise interest rates quickly, substantially, and for a long time. Powell gave his “tough-love” speech on August 26th when the S&P 500 was at 4,200 and the Treasury yield…...
What a week, month I mean. The first three quarters of 2022 have been disasterous for investors of all types. Recall that year-to-date through Q3 had been the worst start for a 60/40 portfolio since 1974, which was also an inflation and Fed hiking regime. However, as detailed in the Ned Davis Research chart below, following…...
“Do you know what investing for the long run, but listening to market news everyday is like? It’s like a man walking up a big hill with a yo-yo and keeping his eyes fixed on the yo-yo instead of the hill.” ~Alan Abelson If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market,…...
