David Tepper was once asked about his thoughts on Gold and whether or not it has a place in the average investor’s portfolio. “The markets rarely are what we want them to be and are what we rarely want! It’s supposed to feel uncomfortable. What’s the only logical conclusion from this? If you’re investing in…...
by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many investors believe the Fed’s recent intervention to stabilize the banking system is the beginning of the next QE program. However, not all reserves are created equal and it appears to us like the velocity of money…...
What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the markets rocketed higher in January, peaked in early February, gave up all the gains by March, and rallied from 3,800s to 4,100s over the last 2 weeks, ending the quarter on a high note 🎶. What…...
If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to that period. Rarely, however, do market events repeat so perfectly. Rather, they skip a generation and do something entirely different than what you know. ~Helene Meisler If you would like to watch this week’s State of…...
By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased markedly. We think stocks are next as investors realize earnings guidance looks unrealistic. This is when the ERP typically reprices, and stocks may finally get ahead of the downside we see in earnings estimates. Bond markets…...
Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking sector where reserves are now back to the “ample reserve” minimum that forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reverse course after its 2018 QT caused problems in the money market by that year’s end. The new…...
Avoid at all costs: If you’re bullish on the markets you are probably only digesting bullish data points. If you are bearish on the markets you are probably only digesting bearish data points. Seek balance, not bias! ~Seth Golden If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the…...
With the back-stopping of bank deposits by the Fed/FDIC, many equity investors are asking if this is another form of QE and therefore “risk on.” We argue it’s not, and instead represents the beginning of the end of the bear market as falling credit availability squeezes growth out of the economy. This Is Not QE…Once…...
There is never a time to not be honest with oneself as an investor/trader. We should always remain objective and flexible with respect to incoming data, be it fundamental, technical or quantitative data. I can’t suggest there has been much, if any, shift in the fundamental data year-to-date, but the technical data is becoming increasingly…...
The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline figure came in at 0.4%, down a tick from January’s reading. Both headline figures matched their consensus estimates. The Core CPI came in at 5.5%, tallying its fifth consecutive monthly decline since peaking…...
