After 3 consecutive years of double-digit returns for investors who stayed the course, through the ups and downs, downs and ups; 2022 is not starting off on the proverbial “good foot”. Then again, there is a significant portion of the investing population who missed a significant portion of the bull market rally since the March…...
“If you can’t pull the trigger on stocks here it may be because you’re focused on the next 3% when the better approach is to focus on the next 30%.” To watch the State of the Market video, please click the link provided. Choppy markets in early 2022, with a long, and almost certainly, winding…...
A new year brings new investment opportunities even if the narrative isn’t changing. We still recommend a large cap defensive bias given tightening financial conditions and decelerating growth. Round it out with a barbell of small/mid cap value until valuations fully reset this Spring. A new year but same narrative, for now. Tightening monetary policy…...
The way Technicians feel about Fundamentals is the way Quants feel about Technicians!! Know which discipline aligns mostly with your aptitude, but grow your knowledge for all investing disciplines!! The best investors I know are able to utilize all 3 disciplines!! If you would like to watch the State of the Market video analysis hosted…...
7 GENERAL PRINCIPLES: What is evidence-based research 1. Nothing new under the sun: Importance of looking at cycles 2. Equities junior in capital structure: Bonds lead stocks 3. Don’t shout at the market: Market doesn’t care about my opinion 4. Stop carrying a “Lehman hammer”: Avoid cognitive bias 5. Confidence drives markets: Confidence changes faster…...
Macro Strategy—The U.S. trade-weighted dollar remains overvalued, much as we anticipated one year ago, and may well be able to maintain its balancing act over the next year. Consensus expectations remain timid, reflecting a continued reluctance to bet against the greenback. It’s hard to rule out upside surprises or dismiss downside risks to the dollar.…...
Ease is a greater threat to progress than hardship ~ Denzel Washington If you want to view our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and enjoy the holiday season! December typically starts out weak. And it has. But despite the recent worrisome headlines about the…...
While expected, we think the Fed’s pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset prices than most investors believe. Good news, supply is improving but will it arrive at the wrong time? Meanwhile, factors and styles remain volatile — stick with large cap defensive quality. Tapering is tightening for markets,…...
Key Metrics Earnings Growth: For Q4 2021, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.2%. If 21.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fourth straight quarter of earnings growth above 20%. Earnings Revisions: On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2021 was also…...
Look for further upside in 2022, the cycle is far from finished… the dip driven by new variant scare is unlikely to last… We believe there is further upside for stocks next year, despite a strong run so far, and do not see the recent new variant driven volatility as a game changer. Market could…...
