US Equity Strategy: Equity Risk Premium, Market Multiple, Zero Rates, Liquidity Boom, Long Duration, Sustainable Income. The sharp ~30% recovery in S&P 500 from the Mar 23 trough, even as earnings expectations and macro outlook were steadily being revised lower by the street, has come as a surprise to many. After the market crossed our…...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity, the equity market has already seen a rally from the March bottom, has already recovered close to half of the total peak-to-trough decline. The drivers of the current crisis have been exceptional, but similarities with previous episodes suggest that investors should continue to…...
Over the last 2-3 weeks, Finom Group has outlined our market outlook during the bear market saga, by forecasting a period of consolidation. Consolidation is a phase within a phase of the bear market known as the bottoming process. Don’t lose site of the efficiency for which bear markets unfold, simply because it seems as…...
Market and Volatility Commentary COVID-19 forecasts – providing updates and modeling details Given the unprecedented heath crisis and resulting economic shock, our research focused on understanding the timeline of the pandemic. In a series of papers (see here, here, here, here, here, and here) we provided a set of forecasts about the pandemic that were…...
The world is an imperfect place! Remember that as an investor, engaged in an imperfect marketplace with imperfect systems, theories and analysis. Given this fact, and I think we can all agree it is a fact, one shouldn’t expect perfection in their market participation. There will be both wins and losses, trials and tribulations, good…...
Market and Volatility Commentary S&P 500 back to highs? Quantifying Fed impact on the multiple; Sunshine – a factor in reducing COVID- 19 spread The COVID-19 pandemic trajectory and recovery is currently the key driver of financial markets. In our recent work, we used big data and a multidisciplinary scientific approach to forecast the date…...
Through the first 4 days of the trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to gain 10 points; that’s right, just 10 points in 4 trading sessions and with the VIX still right around 40. The 4-day ROC (rate of change) was rather remarkable low seeing as how the benchmark index rose 12%+ in the…...
Market and Volatility Commentary: COVID-19 herd immunity and importance of regional datasets – Gangelt, Faroe, Iceland and UAE; Fed’s historic pivot. Mon Apr 13 2020 Understanding the extent of COVID-19 herd immunity, the importance of Gangelt, Faroe, Iceland, and UAE datasets. In our reports last month, we applied big data to model the peak (apex)…...
On behalf of Finom Group, we want to wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday weekend. As mentioned in last weekend’s Research Report, this weekend would be an “off week” for our Sunday Research Report, and to resume in the following week. Having said that, we still have and desire to offer some notes and…...
Two factors may help mitigate further volatility. BY JURRIEN TIMMER, DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MACRO FOR FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH COMPANY (FMRCO), FIDELITY Key takeaways The S&P 500 Index entered the week of April 6 down 27% from the high and up 14% from the low set on March 23. At this point it is anyone’s guess…...
