Goldman Sachs 2024 Macro-Market Outlook: Just Stay
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The Leuthold Group: Evaluating The Rebound
The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish weight of the evidence. Net equity exposure in the Core Fund, Core private accounts, Core ETF, and Global Fund all stand at 45%. The guideline range for these portfolios’ stock weighting is 30% to 70%. Today’s…...
Bank of America: A peek into Year 4 of Presidential Cycle
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More Hurdles For Markets To Clear Before 2024
The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those who were/are positioned bearishly and with the hopes of bad outcomes for equities. The most basic aspect to investing is as long as you position for the long-term, while maintaining a consistent cash position to take…...
The Leuthold Group: Putting The “Sahm Rule” To The Test
In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But as the inversion deepened, Harvey abandoned that view, moving squarely into the recession camp. We respect his flexibility. Today, we have another economist…...
Getting Zweig-Y With It
Nobody, not once, not ever, said it would be easy to make money in the financial markets as an investor or a trader. Even with such an understanding, there is a difference between making money and achieving one’s investing/trading goals. I had received a number of inquiries, e-mails and direct messages over the last several…...
Bank of America: The Sell Side Indicator (SSI)
Equity sentiment declined for the first time since May Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI) is a contrarian sentiment barometer that tracks sell side strategists’ average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced fund. The indicator declined 37bp last month to 53.1% as the S&P 500 fell 2.2% (its third consecutive month of losses). This marks…...
The Cost of Even Higher for Longer and Tightening Liquidity
Since our publication of Cost of Higher for Longer in February, we have seen interest rates across the curve move higher with expectation for rates to remain restrictive for longer. Liquidity continues to contract as G5 Central Banks shrink balance sheets at an unprecedented pace (~$5.5T over the last six quarters, see Figure 12MSCI ACWI…...
Fundstrat Addressing the Incoming Data Ahead of Fed Day
9 key macro events this week, but Treasury refunding most important arguably. Incoming data likely soft-ish which should help break negative doom loop on stocks. We discuss: Tireless Ken and team analyzed earnings transcripts and found 360 references to Israel- Gaza connected to headwinds, uncertainty, compared to ~45 to 50 past 5 quarters. So the…...
Capital Economics: Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is unlikely to generate a sustained hit to major asset markets. This Focus considers how that may change, and what the lessons from previous geopolitical…...
