We know that historical analogs and averages can be overdone in market analysis, and our statistical approach (and maybe our longevity) makes us even more susceptible to looking for patterns that might not exist. Last fall, though, we noted that the current inflationary cycle is tracking the “average” historical path to an almost eerie degree,…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Equities rallied to YTD highs on optimism around a US debt ceiling resolution, a move that seems misplaced given they were never pricing in a material risk of failure to raise the ceiling to begin with, and as negotiations are far from complete. Even aside from the debt ceiling issue, we maintain that…...
Pundits and gurus master the art of going out on a limb without going out on a limb. ~Philip Tetlok If you would like to watch the recorded State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Remember, this is our off-weekend, therefore, we will not be publishing a weekend macro-market Research Report. Have…...
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Boom! It just got “real”, as the kids say. The boom is the equivalent of the S&P 500 (SPX) finally getting back above 4,200, intraday. Is the intraday label 🏷 noteworthy? It is to technicians and algorithms, and a majority of active traders/investors whom monitor such nuances/labels. Having said that, I am of the opinion…...
“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.” ~Pele If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for…...
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change from earlier in the year, and raises the likelihood of earnings disappointment that’s not priced if we’re correct. Meanwhile, narrow and late cycle leadership persists. Thoughts from the Road…Having spent the last few weeks on the…...
There are a great many opinions on the market and the potential outcome/s for the debt ceiling that lay ahead. We have taken the liberty of disseminating such opinions from various Wall Street institutions. Ultimately, Finom Group encourages investors to look toward the debt ceiling as a win-win situation. Fear from this potential event that…...
Just 10 days ago, the Federal Reserve signaled a likely pause in the rate hiking campaign to fight inflation. Since then, while a risk event had been cleared from the markets, a rally has yet to transpire. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.3% this past week, its sixth consecutive week of moves less…...
There isn’t much ‘feeling’ on the part of bulls or bears these days. As discussed previously, with seven months having passed since the October low, it doesn’t feel like a bear market, but with the S&P 500 up less than 20% from those lows, it hardly has the feeling of a bull market either. The…...
