Long-term trends and short-term emotions are both powerful. Former can build wealth, latter can sabotage that effort. ~Brian G of Alphacharts Facts: Nobody has been more wrong than the 🐻 in 2023. But that does not mean the 🐂 have been right either. Here’s the rub; since 1950, the S&P 500 has never priced and…...
Waking From A Slumber? We’re very skeptical that the rally from last October’s low represents the first leg of new bull market. But if it is—as many believe—then it has unquestionably inherited the worst set of genes we’ve ever observed in the species. Compared with its ancestors of the last 100 years, this, hypothetical (thus…...
Technically Vulnerable? For this week’s segment of “Looking at the charts/quants”, we’ll lead with the most perfect of quant data that we have highlighted many a time in the past; it is the CNBC Market’s In Turmoil study by Charlie Bilello (see tweet below). I’m not a fan of the “total return” disclosure or qualifier…...
Soooooo… feels like the market is running in place, right? Since hitting its initial 2023 high on February 2nd (4,195), the market had retraced all of the gains, rallied back within a few points of that initial high, consolidated for 4 straight days this past week and then rallied sharply on Friday. The S&P 500…...
“It’s one thing to have forecasts, but if you can’t get what’s going on right now correct, there’s no way you’ll be right about what’s happening later” ~Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Be on the lookout…...
Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery is growing amid a stronger than expected reporting season. Meanwhile, the recent leading macro data have slowed further. We recommend owning high operational efficiency and earnings stability stories and offer related screens in today’s note. Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery grows…The driving force behind the resiliency…...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—The Calm Before the Storm? Economic indicators continue to support our view that U.S. growth is on a slowing trajectory as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive liquidity tightening increasingly squeezes bank lending appetite, consumer spending, business expansion plans and corporate pricing power. Indeed, the data’s pattern of change over the past…...
The big money is made in waiting and simplicity. Not in overactivity and complexity. ~Brian G of Alphacharts You can digest all the macro-fundamental data/narratives in the world; it still won’t make you a better investor. More information doesn’t = greater returns, but it often = less exposure/less returns. Logically, you’re reading it because you’re…...
The coming week will prove a meaningful earnings week, as the Mega-cap Growth companies will be reporting their quarterly results. Due to their contribution to the S&P 500’s total earnings, the cumulative response to reported results will likely drive the markets’ overall performances for the week. Analysts are expecting Tech profits to register the biggest…...
While we are forgoing our traditional State of the Market recording and process, please review our latest video (link here) and supporting content from the trading week. Additionally, we have included the latest Merrill Lynch report to clients. Be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report and have a great trading week! What if,…...
