It really feels like the markets have not traveled too low or too high since hitting their peaks in February 2023, after what has been a protracted bear market. Whether or not this is a new bull market remains highly debatable and not worth the majority of investor attention. Having said that, what is worthy…...
“It’s not that optimism solves all of life’s problems; it is just that it can sometimes make the difference between coping and collapsing.” – Lucy MacDonald If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report. Have…...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Deep Credit Restraint Likely In The Pipeline: Rapid-fire Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes over the past year quickly brought housing activity to its knees, as it’s typically the first sector to feel the effects of tightening monetary policy. The economy tends to experience a broader effect with a delay,…...
In recent years, we’ve supplemented our longstanding normalized earnings technique with the simpler method of referencing any past peak in EPS (or, for that matter, trailing peaks in other corporate fundamentals, like cash flow and sales per share). While we believe it’s a good addition to our valuation arsenal, at the moment, the use of…...
David Tepper was once asked about his thoughts on Gold and whether or not it has a place in the average investor’s portfolio. “The markets rarely are what we want them to be and are what we rarely want! It’s supposed to feel uncomfortable. What’s the only logical conclusion from this? If you’re investing in…...
by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many investors believe the Fed’s recent intervention to stabilize the banking system is the beginning of the next QE program. However, not all reserves are created equal and it appears to us like the velocity of money…...
What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the markets rocketed higher in January, peaked in early February, gave up all the gains by March, and rallied from 3,800s to 4,100s over the last 2 weeks, ending the quarter on a high note 🎶. What…...
If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to that period. Rarely, however, do market events repeat so perfectly. Rather, they skip a generation and do something entirely different than what you know. ~Helene Meisler If you would like to watch this week’s State of…...
By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased markedly. We think stocks are next as investors realize earnings guidance looks unrealistic. This is when the ERP typically reprices, and stocks may finally get ahead of the downside we see in earnings estimates. Bond markets…...
Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking sector where reserves are now back to the “ample reserve” minimum that forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reverse course after its 2018 QT caused problems in the money market by that year’s end. The new…...
