For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in the meantime. There are two series from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey covering the job market—“Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get.” We don’t know why two measures are needed, since they are two sides…...
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling start, and yet investor sentiment remaining rather suspect, some “payback” was likely in store in February. After all, markets don’t tend to go up in a straight line. Overbought conditions will develop during a strong uptrend,…...
All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock ~ Charlie Munger If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market, please click the provided link. Be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report. Have a…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was the spike in auto sales, reported on February 1. New unit car and light truck sales jumped nearly 18% month-to-month, taking sales to their highest level since May 2021. The retail sales data subsequently reported a…...
Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are, so their neuroticism and paranoia will be vindicated. But this perspective is not conducive to successful investing! If you would like to watch our Weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Reminder,…...
Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think that the full hit from the Fed’s actions have already worked through the economy. Existing home sales have hit bottom and likely will rise a bit in Q1, but prices have a long way to fall.…...
We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or a combination of the two. As it pertains to investing: It’s hard to invest “well” without both, but it is easy to entertain the idea that we can invest well by either experiencing investing without a…...
Good day Finom Group members. As I continue to recover from my illness early this year (cough/cold), we will be foregoing this week’s State of the Market video. But please continue to read and digest our ongoing dissemination of 3rd party Research. This latest report from J.P. Morgan focuses on subject matter we’ve discussed in…...
Core Services Inflation is Sticky, but the Fed is Exerting a Lot of Pressure Core CPI services inflation is still sticky; the Fed’s favored measure of services ex-energy and rents rose 0.36% in January, slowing only trivially—well within the mar gin of measurement error—from the 0.39%—increase in December. The usual culprits misbehaved again, with vehicle…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent good news on inflation and are complacent of risks. Equity markets appeared to read this month’s central bank meetings as dovish, while dismissing…...
