Larger narrative is Fed “disinflation” is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense. (by Fundstrat) The January jobs report was strong = Fed wary, but also means US not in recession = good The strong January jobs report (+517k vs 188k expected), along with strong…...
To take a page out of last weekend’s Research Report, let’s highlight the theme centered on the probability of an interim consolidation/pullback, as follows: “It’s rare to know precisely when a pullback is going to take place, other than hoping individual breadth and/or momentum stochastics are suggesting overbought conditions. But even these overbought conditions can…...
“During his tenure Lynch trounced the market overall and beat it in most years, racking up a 29 percent annualized return. But Lynch himself pointed out a fly in the ointment. He calculated that the average investor in his fund made only around 7 percent during the same period. When he would have a setback,…...
Macro Strategy—Fixed Income Positioning: Be Circumspect and Mind the Disconnect: For the past several months, risk assets including credit have had a remarkable rally against a significantly weakening economic environment. More recently, another “gap” has developed and widened: the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) expected future rate path versus market expectations. With these numerous disconnects and yields…...
If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s macro-market Research Report! Morgan Stanley team: No economic recession, but rather EPS recession. Sell stocks, buy bonds with yield-curve inverted 1H2023. 2H…...
The ECI is the best measure of wage growth, but you still need to look under the hood, not at the headline… …Private sector wages, ex-incentive pay, is the key metric, and it likely slowed further in Q4. If wage growth really is slowing to a sustainable pace, the Fed will find it hard to…...
Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager: Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. The Major Trend Index improved to High Neutral (reading of +1) in the week ended January 27th, following two weeks in its Neutral…...
Chief Investment Office Macro Strategy Team at Merrill Lynch: Macro Strategy—Treasury Offsetting QT Until Mid-Year: The looming debt ceiling crisis is pressuring the U.S. Treasury to drain hundreds of billions of dollars from its account at the Federal Reserve (Fed), adding reserves to the banking system and easing financial conditions. Coupled with an improved outlook…...
Yield curve is the most inverted in decades, yet many parts of the market are making new 52-week highs. ISM below 50 yet industrials, materials are some of the strongest sectors. Mortgage rates spiked, yet homebuilders doing well. Lesson? Always. Follow. Price. ~Alpha Charts If you would like to watch our recorded State of the…...
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