By: Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. When Jerome Powell took the reins of the Federal Reserve in early 2018, many commentators cheered the fact that he does…...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have a time-tested process that doesn’t rely on such predictions! ~Seth Marcus If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and be…...
2023 Global Economic Outlook • With financial conditions tightening and the winter aggravating China’s COVID and Europe’s natural gas problems, the global expansion is projected to proceed at a sub-par 1.5%ar pace into 2023. • The global economy is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession, in our view, as 2022 adverse supply-side shocks…...
There is still considerable debate about whether the bear market has yet set its low. Certainly, if the U.S. economy is headed for a deep recession, stock investors will face additional, significant downside risk. Several smart bears on Wall Street suggest the S&P 500 could decline to about 3,000—or -25% from today’s level—as analysts are…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: The October US CPI release delivered the largest downward inflation surprise since the start of the pandemic, raising the likelihood of a soft landing scenario. However, with a Fed Funds rate close to 5%, a recession will be difficult to avoid unless the Fed more meaningfully pivots. As such, our optimism is tempered…...
By Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group Inflation has been slowing for the last several months and finally appeared in the “headline” numbers last week. Although a single comforting CPI report will not eclipse ongoing concerns about inflation, leading up to that report, there was a broad array of evidence that inflation was moderating and…...
If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must choose from one of two pains. The pain of discipline or the pain of regret! ~Jim Rohn If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Have…...
Ahead of the holiday and turn of year period, Morgan Stanley publishes their outlook for 2023. The outlook is no different with regards to future revisions that are always a possibility as the firm monitors the macro, geopolitical, technical and seasonal points of interest from month to month. For 2023, our base case does not…...
Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game! ~Ben Graham If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market, please click the provided link (to be provided shortly). Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s macro-market Research Report!…...
With each passing week in 2022, we analyze, scrutinize, and rationalize a litany of macro-fundamental, technical, and quantitative data. This week, however, we won’t be doing the same ole’ same ole’, as the saying goes. For many Finom Group members you likely have read our works throughout the year or heard our chief equity strategist…...
