What does “back to the new future” mean? The era of quantitative easing and a quick trigger Fed easing policy stance are effectively over. Inflation comes back down to earth exhibiting characteristics more from the 1990s than the 1970s. Corporate fundamentals and valuation matter again with investors looking for earnings stability at a reasonable price.…...
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Approaching the end of the year, it is natural to wonder: What lies ahead? Where does this road lead? Often, navigating markets is a test for how much ambiguity we can handle. How many conflicting pieces of data can we hold in our minds without giving in to confusion or worse nihilism. There is little…...
This week’s focus is likely to be centered on CPI and the Fed. To us, that is yesterday’s news; while it’s important for the next week / year-end trading ranges, the final chapter to this bear market is all about the path of earnings estimates, which are far too high, in our view. Inflation data…...
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The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of a new cycle (often associated with the beginning of a bull market) are coming into focus. It’s only in its infancy, still far from firing on all cylinders, and it could yet be aborted. Nonetheless, while…...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree’s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest…...
I’ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year – plus some recent musings and conversations – to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I’ll start by examining a number of things that I think don’t matter. What Doesn’t Matter: Short-Term Events In The Illusion…...
By: Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. When Jerome Powell took the reins of the Federal Reserve in early 2018, many commentators cheered the fact that he does…...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have a time-tested process that doesn’t rely on such predictions! ~Seth Marcus If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and be…...
