In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~ Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the link provided. (coming shortly) Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report!…...
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this held a reasonable probability after a nearly 18% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) and roughly 20% rally in the Nasdaq (COMP). “In the table/study below from Steve Deppe, we take a look at what just…...
If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever after an interim bear market decline of -27.77% or less. If this were a Bear Market Rally then the NASDAQ gain of +22.52% off the decline of -33.70%…...
Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very consistent pattern that we’ve analyzed and outlined for several months, as the bear market cemented itself in 2022. The good news is that the bear market may have moved from cementation to culmination. The technical analysis…...
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay invested when stocks fall? I buy the argument that there are some evolutionary things going on in our genetic makeup. Better to run first and ask questions later. But if we put that to the side…...
The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year. However, it’s also been a tailwind for earnings. Now, we are on the other side of that mountain, and operating leverage is rolling over likely more than the consensus expects. Be careful what you wish for…Inflation…...
Macro Strategy—Powell On A Mission: U.S. policymakers responded to the pandemic shutdowns with the most aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in over 75 years (Exhibit 1). As a result, monetary policy since the pandemic is most like that of the years right after World War II (WWII). Strong M2 money-supply growth in the mid-1940s was…...
So this just happened: The S&P 500 gained 3.9% from the day of the Fed hike through the following trading day. That is officially the best rally after a Fed hike going back to 1970 (Bloomberg data). Not only that, the S&P 500 kept going on Friday, finishing the week up 4.26 percent. The benchmark…...
“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.” ~Charlie Munger Side Note on Fed: I can’t see FOMC members appreciating the market’s reaction to their message, outlook and July rate hike.…...
Key talking points Aggregate retail inventories have been steadily improving as demand for goods moderates and supply chain bottlenecks ease. The retail inventory to sales ratio has ticked up from the Oct 2021 trough, yet it is still below the 2011-2019 average. That said, the story varies across sectors. At one extreme, general merchandise stores…...
