EVERY BEAR MARKET EVER FOMO turns into, GIDOT (glad I don’t own that), everyone claims they were raising cash ahead of time, everyone references 1987, 2000, 2008 or 1929, everyone quotes MikeTyson’s, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth and everyone thinks the selling will never end. If you would like…...
‘Fire’ AND ‘ice’ persist in the US…Monetary policy continues to tighten as confirmation emerges that growth is slowing (PMIs decelerating, earnings revisions deteriorating, and GDP growth contracted last quarter). The S&P 500 is still not priced for this backdrop, which we expect to continue. We’re in the midst of a hotter but shorter cycle in…...
By the team at Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Global Growth Weakening Fast, Fed On Track To Make Matters Worse: The escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict has caused growing worries about the prospects for world peace, food and energy supplies, global growth, and financial market conditions. Heightened risk aversion has resulted in a typical flight to the…...
Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY knows precisely WHERE markets will land. NOBODY knows WHY it will precisely land where it will, when it does. NOBODY knows and BEHAVES according to what they know inside their portfolio either. Doubt is universal, skill…...
Paul F. Desmond Lowry’s Reports Inc. 26 February 2002 Ask one hundred investors whether this is a bull market or a bear market, and you are likely to find their opinions split evenly down the middle. No one is really certain that the September 2001 low marked the end of the bear market and…...
Within last weekend’s Research Report, the following was offered: “We are in unprecedented market waters and as such our flexibility as investors should remain elevated. Cash and Time; these are going to come in handy for the balance of the year.” The same holds true for the coming days, weeks, and likely months. Recall the…...
I bought Alibaba when everyone was selling it. I knew about the headlines, the China-tech crackdowns, and the inherent risks of owning a Chinese ADR. I read all the warning signs, bought and held Alibaba. Knowing all of the risks, I did it anyway. I took a loss, albeit on a small position. Why did…...
Cross-asset Strategy: Investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness, with the AAII bull-bear survey metric recording its lowest reading since early March 2009, just before the GFC trough. This, in combination with light investor positioning and better than feared Q1 earnings, should allow the market to rebound. We reiterate Energy as our highest conviction sector OW…...
After a first quarter decline for the major averages, and during a midterm election year, it became clear that 2022 was going to be a struggle for investors. There was no guarantee the year would bear a negative return then, but it is becoming increasingly probable after a significant market decline in April came to…...
Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them the “wall” and the “wallop.” The wall refers to the proverbial wall of worry bull markets climb. As Sir John Templeton described famously: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and…...
