Disappointing retail sales and consumer sentiment suggest the US consumer is fading. Most blame Delta but we think this is more about a payback in demand. We reiterate our defensive tilt and remain underweight discretionary and most cyclical sectors. Inventories not as low as consensus believes. Is the US consumer fading? Never bet against the…...
That was some wild monthly Options Expiration week; was it not? While the S&P 500 (SPX) fell .60% on the week, it threatened a great deal more than that by mid-week. The trend has not proven friendly for monthly Options Expiration week, but the long-term trend for the benchmark index proved its strength once again…...
They say the trading hierarchy is 10% Technical analysis, 30% Risk Management and 60% Patience & Emotion management. If you lack patience, and can’t control and recognize your emotions, then you’ll likely find little to any progress with your investing/trading regiments. Technical/Fundamental analysis is the strategy/process and plan to employ. The hardest part is the…...
Following very strong 1H earnings, we raise our forecasts that leave us above consensus on 2021 but below on 2022 due to lower margins and higher taxes. With our view for further derating, our S&P targets remain largely unchanged. We also take a deep dive on what companies are currently saying. Marking to market on…...
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report, as we kick-off our 3-week reporting cycle. Two weeks ago, during our week off, markets continued to climb higher. The biggest achievement during the climb was the onset of market breadth improvements. We’ve noted that significant corrections had been taking place underneath the surface of the indices,…...
“A strategy is NOT bound by or tethered to luck! Find a strategy that works for you, incorporates your risk tolerance and breeds repeatable profits. Until you do, luck may be playing a bigger role than skill if finding a degree of success. ~Seth Golden As Jason Zweig previously penned: “Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to…...
By Russell Rhoads As we approached August, market observers and commentators pointed to the danger that the months of August and September may hold for stocks. This line of thinking comes from recent history. Specifically, mid-month sell-offs in the 12% to 13% range for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) in August 2011 and August 2015 along with…...
STRATEGY: July/August “chop” morphing into full Missouri (aka “show me state”) –> tilting us further into “risk-on” view –> multiple risk-on signs Wednesday sell-off was capitulation… The sell-off seen in markets Wednesday, in our view, had a capitulatory feel to it. The ostensible trigger was a combination of the soft ADP jobs report and seeming…...
“Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch To review the State of the Market weekly video, please click the following link. In this week’s macro-market analysis we take yet a further look at what investors can anticipate, with no guarantees, from the month of August.…...
The mid-cycle transition de-rating is advanced but unfinished. Falling earnings revision breadth this fall will likely complete that process. We like a barbell of defensives (h/c and staples) and rate plays (financials) as Fed moves toward tapering. Weak breadth reflects De-rating under the surface. Our mid cycle transition continues with weak breadth, quality stocks doing…...
