Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields. In other words: “do bonds know something about macro fundamentals that equities and commodities don’t?” Our answer is ‘no’, and we explain the technical drivers likely responsible for the recent bond rally. We advise clients to…...
The Fed is likely to start discussing the tapering path, and over the next few meetings potentially indicate the timing of its implementation. JPM’s view is that tapering will commence from early next year. This is even as inflation fears are probably not going to keep accelerating. To be sure, inflation is likely to…...
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You can know everything there is to know about markets, technicals, fundamentals and still be a poor investor/trader… why? Most, not some but most, market participants have a below average EQ (Emotional Quotient) Mind over Matter! Wisdom of Words… Or Something Like That “90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike,…...
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short, inflation debate remains undecided and will likely stay that way for awhile longer. This will keep equity markets choppy and the debate about Value over Growth alive as well. With earnings season over, all eyes are…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past week. In previous reports, we had outlined the quantitative data surrounding the forward returns for the benchmark index during Memorial Day’s trading week, which since 2010 proved to be negative and with a less than 50%…...
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the markets in 2021. To review the latest State of the Market video, click the following link! The worst 6 months of the year for market returns are May through October, so we are still in the thick of a potentially challenging period based on seasonality.…...
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has become an obsession. On both fronts, we could be at a moment of (too) Great Expectations. It’s better to travel than arrive. Markets…...
Welcome back! Every week, Seth and I discuss all the facets of the market and what are the factors impacting the market for our members’ benefit… long-term. From one week in the market to the next, anything is possible. It’s for this reason we’ve long since adopted the philosophy and strategy that Seth coined, “act…...
Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger than $6.5trn fiscal stimulus, $120bn monthly Fed purchases and a YoY baseline economic comparison of near 0.” To review the weekly SOTM video, please click the following link. Now let’s dive into some of the technicals,…...
