Course correcting Epicenter –> downgrade Financials to N from OW, upgrade FANG from UW to OW
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Weekly State of the Market: Bond Yield Breakdown
You can know everything there is to know about markets, technicals, fundamentals and still be a poor investor/trader… why? Most, not some but most, market participants have a below average EQ (Emotional Quotient) Mind over Matter! Wisdom of Words… Or Something Like That “90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike,…...
Morgan Stanley’s Weekly Warm-up: Focus on Alpha and Relative Value
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short, inflation debate remains undecided and will likely stay that way for awhile longer. This will keep equity markets choppy and the debate about Value over Growth alive as well. With earnings season over, all eyes are…...
Market Participants Go Fishing For Answers
The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past week. In previous reports, we had outlined the quantitative data surrounding the forward returns for the benchmark index during Memorial Day’s trading week, which since 2010 proved to be negative and with a less than 50%…...
Weekly State of The Market: With Tapering, New Highs Hard to Achieve
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the markets in 2021. To review the latest State of the Market video, click the following link! The worst 6 months of the year for market returns are May through October, so we are still in the thick of a potentially challenging period based on seasonality.…...
Morgan Stanley: Great Expectations on Earnings and Inflation
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has become an obsession. On both fronts, we could be at a moment of (too) Great Expectations. It’s better to travel than arrive. Markets…...
Investing: Make “Time” Your Best Friend
Welcome back! Every week, Seth and I discuss all the facets of the market and what are the factors impacting the market for our members’ benefit… long-term. From one week in the market to the next, anything is possible. It’s for this reason we’ve long since adopted the philosophy and strategy that Seth coined, “act…...
Weekly State of the Market
Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger than $6.5trn fiscal stimulus, $120bn monthly Fed purchases and a YoY baseline economic comparison of near 0.” To review the weekly SOTM video, please click the following link. Now let’s dive into some of the technicals,…...
Morgan Stanley Weekly Warm-up: Feedback to our Mid Year Outlook
While there is some sympathy for our mid-cycle transition, most think it’s too early, or not worth acting on. There is also push back on our call for lower valuations and some of our specific relative value trades. Finally, investors are more bullish on the earnings outlook for next year. Some,gradual, buy in to the…...
Markets Are Doing Little More Than Chopping Wood
The past trading week almost mirrored what we saw 2 weeks ago when the S&P 500 (SPX) fell in the first 3 trading days of the week, but then rallied on Thursday and Friday to close out the week. That rally into the weekend, 2 weeks ago, wasn’t enough to turn the index positive for…...
